The Chinese economy is in unusually dire straits.
The unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds, a demographic that has been key tothe country’s growth, has reached a historically high level of nearly 20% while the income of public servants, especially those in rural areas, has tumbled 30% in some cases.
Who will be able to step in as the next premier and save the struggling economy? Some people in China’s business circles recommend Wang Yang, the 67-year-old chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country’s top political advisory body.
Wang ranks fourth among the current seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the Chinese Communist Party’s top decision-making body.
But Wang’s movements have been low-key since he joined the Standing Committee five years ago. He often makes remarks showing his loyalty to Chinese President Xi Jinping, 69.
Wang is considered part of the Communist Youth League faction, which comprises former officials of the 73 million-strong league that is at once a massive party youth organization and a gateway to party leadership.
But in reality, Wang’s only association with the group is serving as a senior local official of the Youth League in Anhui province, where he was born, in the first half of the 1980s.
Unlike former President Hu Jintao, 79; Premier Li Keqiang, 67; and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, 59; Wang is not a mainstream elite who climbed the institutional ladder at the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League.
And unlike his three colleagues, Wang also has no experience serving as the first secretary of the Communist Youth League, the group’s top post.
Former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping played a key role in promoting Wang.
Wang was born to a poor family. After graduating from middle school, he worked at a food factory. He became mayor of Tongling in Anhui in his mid-30s and proceeded to reform the local administration and publicly-owned companies.
Wang once wrote an article headlined “Wake up! Tongling” that was published in a local newspaper and drew attention in Beijing.
It came out around the time Deng embarked on a “southern tour,” in January 1992, to revive a “reform and opening-up” policy that had withered in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident.
Deng stopped in Anhui and is said to have met with Wang, who was still a young local leader and champion of reform and opening up.
After receiving Deng’s blessing, Wang began to rise through the ranks.
Wang held the posts of Anhui vice governor, deputy head of the now-National Development and Reform Commission, deputy secretary-general of the State Council, and of party secretary of both Chongqing and Guangdong. He then moved into central leadership, first as vice premier and then as head of the CPPCC.
The reason Wang Yang isis receiving attention is due to state media coverage of Deng’s reform and opening up. The coverage is thought to reflect the discussions at the Beidaihe meeting, the annual summer conclave attended by incumbent and retired party officials.
After the Beidaihe meeting, which is thought to have been held in early August, the front page of the People’s Daily was filled with articles related to Xi’s inspection tour of Liaoning province.
This suggested that Xi, who doubles as the party’s general secretary, is eager to seek reelection for a third term as China’s top leader at the party’s next national congress, which begins Oct. 16.
Meanwhile, the coverage of Premier Li after the Beidaihe meeting caught the attention of China watchers. On state-run China Central Television’s main evening news program, videos of Li taking part in conferences or visiting places appeared several days before videos of Xi started to appear.
Li was in Shenzhen, a city that symbolizes the reform and opening-up policy.
A visit to Shenzhen was a central part of Deng’s 1992 southern tour. During his recent inspection of the city, Li presented a flower basket to the famous statue of Deng at Lianhuashan Park.
That Li, not Xi, visited Shenzhen and offered flowers to the statue of Deng, is thought to reflect conclusions made at the secretive Beidaihe meeting.
Why?
In the past decade, Xi has pursued a strategy of overtaking Deng in terms of achievements, to pave the way for his unusual third term as party chief. He has tried to overturn rules Deng installed, be they in regard to politics, the economy or security.
But with the economy hitting the brakes hard, it is only natural that concerns were expressed at Beidaihe.
While there have been no announcements, state TV coverage hints that Li has been tapped as the flag-bearer of Deng’s reform and opening-up policy. This was projected domestically and internationally by Li’s Shenzhen visit.
But Li will certainly step down as premier next spring, as he proclaimed he would in March. At that point it will become necessary to replace Li as the champion of reform and opening up.
Whoever inherits the role will need political finesse. Xi tends to go to extremes, and when he does Li’s successor must be accomplished enough to be able to persuade Xi to pull back.
Furthermore, Li’s successor must maintain a good relationship with Xi. Thus the spotlight on Wang Yang.
There is a photo of the annual session of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, from March 2019 showing Xi and Wang exchanging words in a friendly manner on stage.
Xi and Li, whose relationship is delicate, are seldom seen exchanging such pleasantries.
As premier, Li oversees the State Council, China’s government. But Xi has deprived Li of substantive powers by, for example, strengthening the party’s Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs.
One reason Xi keeps a distance from Li is to show the world that China’s top two leaders are of a different class. With Wang, Xi would have no reason to act so tactically.
The return of the reform and opening-up policy is related to Xi’s signature economic policy of “common prosperity.” Since its launch in the summer of 2021, China has been pulled into an economic downturn by a slumping property market and a strict zero-COVID policy.
Xi now speaks of “common prosperity” significantly less often, though he used it twice while in Liaoning.
Completely ditching “common prosperity” would make Xi lose face. But if it were to again take over economic policy, China could be in trouble.
This is another reason there are growing expectations of Wang, a direct inheritor of Deng’s economic policy and someone who attaches importance to the market mechanism.
There is an iron rule that is obeyed when selecting a premier: that they are chosen from among those who have served as vice premier.
Since Zhou Enlai, Mao Zedong’s loyal accompanist and premier, died in 1976, the post of premier has been inherited by former vice premiers without exception.
Only those who are well-versed in the practical business of China’s economic and financial management can serve as premier, the thinking goes. Wang served as vice premier from 2013 to 2018, when he was in charge of external economic relations.
Li Qiang, Shanghai’s top official and Xi’s close aide, also has been tipped to be a candidate for premier. But the 63-year-old has no Beijing experience.
If he were to move to Beijing in the coming weeks and become vice premier, Li Qiang would have a chance to be appointed premier next spring. But his reputation was tarnished by Shanghai’s COVID lockdown earlier this year.
In terms of experience as vice premier, First Vice Premier Han Zheng, 68, is also qualified to become the next premier. But Han’s promotion to premier would run afoul of the unofficial party rule requiring leaders to retire without assuming any new posts if they have reached the age of 68.
Vice Premier Hu Chunhua could also be a candidate for premier. But Hu is a legitimate inheritor of the Communist Youth League faction. He is also 10 years younger than Xi, and as Xi aims to maintain a long reign he cannot help but be wary of Hu.
It may prove fortunate that Wang is outside the mainstream of the Communist Youth League faction. Xi might think he can form a good partnership with Wang as the seasoned veteran poses no threat to the leader’s status.
In another matter, Hu Xijin, a prominent Chinese blogger and former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, said in a post in mid-August that he had heard from two public servants in a certain region that their salaries declined at the end of last year and would drop by nearly one-third for the whole of this year.
In Zhejiang province and elsewhere, people who are believed to be public servants took to social media at the end of last year to reveal pay cuts of around 25%; their posts were quickly deleted.
Eight months on, the fact that local economies have greatly deteriorated is finally becoming public knowledge.
The current situation is so harsh one Chinese economist is predicting that the next five years will be the most difficult since reform and opening up took hold a little more than four decades ago.unless the appointee is granted enough power to demonstrate their abilities.
Will Wang Yang be the one to save the Chinese economy? That’s up to Xi. – Nikkei Asia, (Reuters pic)
Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.
