The dollar wrecking ball is swinging its way through world markets again, after a solid U.S. jobs report strengthened the view that the Fed will deliver a fourth consecutive 75 basis- point rate hike at its next meeting.
Wall Street tanked on Friday and global markets will likely be reeling on Monday. Asian trade could be more volatile than usual as China reopens after the Golden Week holiday.
China will be very much in focus this week. The Caixin services PMI over the weekend showed that activity contracted in September for the first time since May, and the economic data dump this week includes inflation, trade, and loan growth.
The PBOC also sets interest rates sometime between Oct. 13 and Oct. 16. Does it raise its key one-year lending rate from 2.75% currently to support the yuan, or are policymakers more concerned with sluggish growth?
All this comes ahead of the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress which opens on Oct. 16. On top of the country’s economic troubles, political, trade and military challenges are also mounting.
Elsewhere in Asia this week the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Bank of Korea are set to raise rates. Analysts are split on how much the MAS will tighten, and expect the BOK to raise by 50 bps.
The problem these central banks face is that failure to keep up with the Fed intensifies the pressure on their currencies. The BOK has already intervened to support the won, which last week hit a 13-1/2 year low, and the Singapore dollar is also close to a post-2009 low.
Major data releases in Asia this week include Indian inflation, Korean unemployment and Singapore GDP, while the big one for global markets is U.S. inflation on Thursday.
Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington
Fed’s Brainard and Evans speak
