The August, Industrial Production Index and Distributive Trade Index grew +13.6% YoY and +27.1% YoY as Crude Palm Oil output rise slowed to +0.9% YoY. Applying these to the monthly GDP tracker, Maybank Investment Bank estimated GDP grew +15.7% YoY in August and +16.3% YoY in July-Aug 2022, signaling faster 3Q 2022 growth despite manufacturing PMI pointing to slower economic growth in Sep 2022.
IPI posted the third consecutive month of double-digit growth in Aug 2022 at +13.6% reflecting the same growth dynamics in manufacturing and electricity, plus acceleration in mining growth. Manufacturing growth was supported by the pickup in export-oriented industries mainly on account of Electronics & Electrical and Coke & Refined Petroleum Products. At the same time, domestic-oriented industries’ growth remained robust reflecting the continued solid performance of Food, Beverages & Tobacco, Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi Trailers and Non-Metallic Mineral, Basic & Fabricated Metal Products.
The pickup in mining output was driven by the rebound in crude oil & condensate amid a further increase in natural gas. DTI also sustained double-digit growth in Aug 2022 at +27.1% YoY on robust expansions in retail trade and motor vehicles trade, as well as the continued rise in wholesale trade. Meanwhile, CPO output also fell to +0.9% YoY in August 2022 vs +3.0% YoY in July.
Inputting these into the monthly GDP tracker, Maybank estimated GDP grew +15.7% YoY in Aug 2022 & +16.3% YoY in July-Aug 2022, signaling faster 3Q 2022 growth, although manufacturing PMI points to slower economic growth in Sep 2022. Manufacturing PMI slipped +2.1% YoY to 49.1 in Sep 2022 – the first sub-50 reading since June-Sep 2021 – the last “lockdown” period.
