The Indonesian export growth moderated for the third straight month in September its lowest growth since February 2021 and below the consensus forecast.
Month on month fell sharply by 11.0%, the lowest growth in four months due to subdued external demand. Moderate growth due to softer export of non-O&G and O&G products. Non-O&G 19.3% growth slowed sharply to a 19-month low since February 2021 due to weak export of manufacturing and agriculture products, but partially supported by
expansion in mining products.
By destination, the moderation in the export of non-O&G to major trading partners was attributable to subdued demand from the US but partially supported by higher shipments to Japan and China. O&G moderated due to a sharp slowdown in the shipment of manufacturing but partially mitigated by higher shipment of mining products.
Imports slowed in September which was at 22% and were below market expectations due to lower imports of non-O&G products. By category, growth was weighed down by weak consumer goods and a slowdown in the import of raw materials as well as capital goods.
Month on month, imports plunged to an eight-month low -10.6% compared to 3.8% growth in August. Trade surplus narrowed to USD5 billion versus USD5.7 billion the previous month but beat market expectations of USD4.8 billion. Meanwhile, total trade slowed sharply, to a 19-month low. Export growth forecast for 2022 retained at 28.6%. Year-to-date, exports grew by 33.5% YoY amid robust external demand, higher commodity prices, and a weaker local currency.
Growth is expected to moderate in the coming months as the base effect dissipates, considering the prospect of a global economic slowdown and prolonged China’s zero-COVID policy.