Retail Sector Surge, Slower Rate Hikes Positive Signs For U.S. Markets Next Week

The major U.S. equity market indexes finished mixed on Friday but recorded gains for the holiday-shortened trading week on optimism following some signs of strength from the retail sector heading into the holiday shopping season and the release of minutes from the Fed’s last meeting suggesting rate hikes might slow soon.

The Nasdaq rose 0.7% for the week, while the Dow gained 1.7%, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, Investopedia.com cited.

Next Monday is Cyber Monday in the U.S., a day that will feature numerous deals, discounts, and promotions for online shoppers. Similar to Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales are considered a proxy for the health of the U.S. consumer and retail sector.

If Black Friday sales outperform this year, the strong performance could carry over into next week and the remainder of the holiday shopping season. Adobe Analytics forecasts $209.7 billion in online holiday sales this year, an increase of 2.5% compared to last year’s holiday sales. Cyber Monday sales are projected to hit $11 billion, or 5.1% higher than in 2021.

Despite higher prices, consumers are feeling optimistic, with households of every income level surveyed by Deloitte planning to spend the same amount or more this holiday season than they did last year.

More earnings will come next week from companies including Salesforce, TD Bank, Dollar General, Kroger, and Ulta Beauty, among others. The labor market will also be in the spotlight, with the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP’s National Employment Report, and the Labor Department’s November nonfarm payrolls report.

The latest updates on home prices will become available with the release of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index and Freddie Mac’s House Price Index (HPI) for September. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October, offering an update on consumer inflation.

Key Takeaways

Cyber Monday sales could serve as another gauge of the health of the U.S. retail sector.

Earnings will come from Salesforce, TD Bank, Dollar General, Kroger, and Ulta Beauty, among others.

On Tuesday, S&P Global will release its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, and mortgage originator Freddie Mac will release its national House Price Index (HPI).

The labour market will also be in the spotlight, with the latest JOLTS report, ADP’s National Employment Report, and the Labour Department’s November nonfarm payrolls report.

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