The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be very much on track for an interest rate cut in September after a “vast majority” of officials said such an action was likely, according to the minutes of the US central bank’s Jul 30 to Jul 31 meeting.
The minutes, which were released on Wednesday (Aug 21), even showed some policymakers would have been willing to reduce borrowing costs at last month’s gathering.The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent range on Jul 31 but opened the door to a cut at the Sep 17 to Sep 18 meeting.
Financial markets have been expecting the September meeting to kick off the Fed’s policy easing, with as much as a full percentage point worth of rate cuts expected by the end of this year.
At the July meeting, most policymakers thought that “if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting”, the minutes said.
They also noted that “many” Fed officials viewed the stance of rates to be restrictive and “a few participants” contended that amid an ongoing cooling in inflationary pressures, no change in rates would mean that monetary policy would increase the drag on economic activity.
While all Fed officials were on board with keeping rates steady in July, the minutes revealed that “several” policymakers said progress in lowering inflation amid a rise in joblessness “had provided a plausible case” for a quarter-percentage-point cut in July, “or that they could have supported such a decision” had it been on the table.The minutes also showed that a dwindling camp of policymakers feared a premature easing in monetary policy could restart inflation.
Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said “the Fed minutes removed all doubt about a September rate cut”. He added that “the Fed’s communication strategy is to make its meetings less of a market-moving event, and they are following the script to the letter”.
With the Fed letting the data determine what happens with rates, central bank watchers are already contemplating the future scope of cuts and whether aggressive action is needed at the onset of the easing cycle.
“It may not be too heavy a lift for (Fed) Chair (Jerome) Powell to move the Committee now to a baseline of three 25-basis-point cuts in a row” through the end of the year, analysts at Evercore ISI said. They added that there’s a “reasonably low bar” for half-percentage-point cuts, but that would likely require a “more pronounced weakening” in the job market relative to the softness seen in hiring data in July.
BALANCE OF RISKS
The case for cutting rates rests on the ebbing of price pressures back to the central bank’s 2 per cent target and increased anxiety about the state of the job market in the wake of recent data showing a rise in the unemployment rate.
The speed of the jump in the jobless rate, which bottomed at 3.4 per cent early last year and has since climbed to 4.3 per cent as of last month, has added urgency to the debate over rate cuts and has prompted some analysts to say that a half-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs should be considered next month.
Reuters
