The number of people injured in a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in eastern Taiwan climbed past 1,000 on Thursday (Apr 4) though the death toll remained steady at nine, with 42 workers on their way to a hotel in a national park still missing.

The earthquake, the strongest in 25 years, hit on Wednesday morning just as people were readying to go to work and school, focused on the largely rural and sparsely populated eastern county of Hualien.

Buildings also shook violently in the capital Taipei, but damage and disruption there was minimal.

Taiwan’s fire department said the number of injuries had reached 1,038, and put the total number of missing at 48, including 42 hotel workers.

Late Wednesday, the disaster management command centre said the search for the hotel workers on their way to Taroko Gorge, a national park, was a major focus for them. Authorities planned to send in drones and helicopters to look for them and drop supplies if they are located.

Others who had been trapped are gradually being found and taken to safety.

On Thursday, a helicopter rescued six people who had been trapped in a mining area, the fire department said.

The railway line to Hualien also re-opened ahead of schedule on Thursday, though one rural station north of Hualien city remains closed due to damage, the railway administration said.

In Hualien city, where rescue work for people who had been trapped in buildings was now completed, some people slept outdoors overnight as dozens of aftershocks rocked the region.

A lady who gave her family name as Yu, 52, said she checked herself into a tent on a sports ground at temporary shelter late on Wednesday night because she was too scared to sleep in her apartment, which she described as “a mess”.

“The aftershocks were terrifying. It’s nonstop. I do not dare to sleep in the house,” she said.

The official central news agency said the quake was the biggest since one of magnitude 7.6 in 1999 that killed about 2,400 people and damaged or destroyed 50,000 buildings.

Taiwan weather officials said the intensity of Wednesday’s earthquake in Hualien stood at the second-highest level of “Upper 6” on a scale ranging from 1 to 7.

Such quakes collapse walls unless they are made of reinforced concrete blocks, while people cannot stand upright and must crawl to move, Japan’s weather agency has said. – CNA

Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Thursday on concerns of lower supply as major producers are keeping output cuts in place and on signs of stronger economic growth in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Brent futures for June rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at USD89.51 a barrel at 0037 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to USD85.59 a barrel.

Both the June Brent contract and the May WTI contract have risen for the past four days and closed on Wednesday at the highest since the end of October.

Oil has gained as Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries have cut fuel supply and amid concerns that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza may spread to include Iran, possibly disrupting supplies in the key Middle East region.

A meeting of top ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, kept oil supply policy unchanged on Wednesday and pressed some countries to boost compliance with output cuts.

The group said some members would compensate for oversupply in the first quarter. It also said Russia would switch to output rather than export curbs.

Also on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was cautious about future interest rate cuts because of recent data showing higher-than-expected job growth and inflation.

The comments were positive for oil because they indicated solid U.S. economic growth, said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist for U.S. Bank’s asset management group.

In the Middle East, Iran has vowed revenge against Israel for an attack on Monday that killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC. – Reuters

Taiwan’s Hualien County (Eastern Taiwan) was struck by an earthquake with a magnitude ranging between 7.2 and 7.5 on the Richter scale on 3 Apr. The earthquake’s epicentre was located about 18km (11 miles) south of Hualien, according to the US Geological Survey.

This was in fact the strongest earthquake to hit Taiwan in 25 years.

RHB Investment Bank (RHB), in its Malaysia Company Update note today (Apr 4), keeps BUY on Gamuda Berhad with a SOP-based MYR6.30 TP, 20% upside and c.2% FY24F (Jul) yield.

Gamuda’s Taiwan job profile. As of end January, Taiwan jobs made up MYR4.5bn (spread across six contracts), or 19% of Gamuda’s MYR24bn outstanding orderbook.

Out of the six ongoing jobs in Taiwan – the rail related projects are the ones with a completion rate of 1% and below; indicating that major works such as tunnelling may not have commenced.

The related rail projects are the Kaohsiung MRT (MYR3bn with an 88% effective share) secured in Oct 2023 and the TaoYuan City Underground Railway project (MYR1.3bn with 60% effective share) clinched in Oct 2022.

Other jobs in Taiwan comprise mainly of structures such as sea wall reclamation, marine bridges and its extensions which are 75-90% complete as of January.

No impact towards Gamuda’s work sites in Taiwan. Location wise, the construction sites of the Gamuda’s projects are far away from Hualien County (at least 200km from the epicentre).

As such, there was no major impact coming from the said earthquake as the respective sites of Gamuda only felt a 4-4.5 magnitude on the Richter scale which is considered to be a light earthquake which can be felt but generally causes no damage.

No changes to RHB’s earnings estimates as RHB sees no major adverse impact towards Gamuda’s operations at its work sites in Taiwan.

As such, their SOP-derived TP of MYR6.30 remains, after baking in a 6% ESG premium.

RHB’s BUY call is premised on its current valuation, trading at 13.9x FY25F P/E which they view as unjustified – GAM was trading at a 16x P/E in mid-CY17 during the construction upcycle when its orderbook was only at MYR7.8bn compared to MYR24bn now.

Furthermore, Gamuda is the cheapest large cap counter vs other peers such as Sunway Construction (SCGB MK, BUY, TP: MYR3.34) and IJM Corp (IJM MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.76).

Re-rating catalysts include faster-than-expected rollouts anticipated for Malaysia and Australia projects, particularly the Mass Rapid Transit 3 or MRT3 (which we expect to be in 4QCY24) (base case scenario) and the Suburban Rail Loop East tunnelling package (likely to be known by July).

Icing on the cake would be consistent wins for data centre jobs within the Klang Valley area as Gamuda had completed the 8MW AIMS Cyberjaya data centre within a period of nine months.

A key risk includes slower-than-expected job replenishment from overseas.

Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, who is also the president-elect in the country’s 2024 Presidential Election, has arrived in Malaysia for his one-day special visit tomorrow.

The special plane carrying Prabawo and his delegation landed at the Air Base here at about 10.15 pm.

Defence Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin welcomed Prabowo upon his arrival.

Prabowo is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim at Perdana Putra, Putrajaya, and attend a closed-door meeting with the Minister of Defence at the Ministry of Defence, Kuala Lumpur.

Meanwhile, SCMP reported  this week’s visits by Prabowo to China and Japan are being seen as a “major diplomatic coup” that analysts say signal his objectives of strengthening Jakarta’s defensive capacity with the West while maintaining good economic ties with Beijing.

Following a three-day visit to Beijing at the invitation of China’s leader Xi Jinping, Prabowo touched down in Tokyo on Wednesday, where he met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Defence Minister Minoru Kihara.

Kishida said the visit showed that Prabowo attached “great importance to Japan”, which is a “long-standing” friend of Indonesia.

Prime Minister Kishida stated that Japan would contribute to Indonesia’s development through cooperation in such fields as infrastructure development and energy and support Indonesia’s efforts to proceed with the process of its accession to the OECD,” Japan’s ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement released on Wednesday.

“In response, President-elect Prabowo expressed his gratitude for Japan’s assistance to date and his hope to further enhance bilateral cooperation in a broad range of areas including security, agriculture and fisheries as well as disaster prevention,” the statement said.

Prabowo visited China and Japan in his capacity as defence minister.

Indonesia is trying to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 38 member countries, including Japan and the United States, that are typically democratic and support free markets.

Kishida and Prabowo also discussed regional issues such as the situation in the East and South China Seas, dealing with North Korea on the nuclear and missile issues, and the crisis in Myanmar.

Meanwhile, Kihara “reiterated [to Prabowo] his opposition to any unilateral change of status quo by force as well as any actions that increase tensions in the South China Sea”, according to a statement from Japan’s ministry of defence.

Kihara also said he “wants to maintain and enhance a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ based on the rule of law together with Indonesia”.

Prabowo’s stated intention of enhancing security ties was not reserved for Tokyo. During a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun on Tuesday, Prabowo said Indonesia was “willing to further strengthen defence cooperation with the Chinese side and continuously promote the development of the relations between the armed forces of the two countries”, according to state news agency Xinhua.

An editorial in The Jakarta Post newspaper on Wednesday lauded Prabowo’s China and Japan trips as a “major diplomatic coup”, saying they were a “very positive step in laying the groundwork for the larger diplomatic arena that he will navigate once he takes office in October”.

Balancing act

Lina Alexandra, an international relations expert with the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Indonesia, said Prabowo’s trips this week were a “symbolic move” signalling his future foreign policy direction, one in which he could “interact with anyone”.

“Prabowo gave a signal that he wanted balanced relations with all countries. He wants to show his ‘good neighbour policy’, at a very early level,” she said.

Prabowo’s trips also showed he wanted to strengthen Indonesia’s defence capacity while simultaneously growing the country’s economy, said Ahmad Rizky Umar, a lecturer at the School of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Queensland in Australia.

“Prabowo’s campaign manifesto placed great emphasis on the modernisation of defence equipment. In the last five years, Prabowo has struggled to negotiate defence issues in the cabinet because [Indonesia’s] fiscal capacity is limited,” he said.

The lack of budget for defence equipment procurement has strained Prabowo’s relationship with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani, who reportedly will not be joining his incoming cabinet.

“As president, Prabowo will be in a more powerful position in negotiating the budget in the cabinet,” Ahmad said.

Jakarta and Beijing generally enjoy a close bilateral relationship. China was Indonesia’s second-largest foreign investor last year with US$7.4 billion worth of investments, behind Singapore’s US$15.4 billion. Japan ranked fourth with US$4.6 billion.

In his campaign, Prabowo vowed continuity with outgoing president Joko Widodo’s programmes, including boosting China’s investments in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. That vow was delivered personally when he met Xi on Monday.

“Once again, I would like to emphasise that I would like to continue the policies of President Jokowi,” Prabowo told Xi, according to state news outlet CCTV, referring to Widodo’s nickname.

“I am determined to use all his achievements as a foundation for my programmes. I fully support a closer and higher quality relationship between [China] and Indonesia.”

But Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea has caused skirmishes in the North Natuna Sea, which is internationally recognised as part of Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone but falls within China’s nine-dash line that claims more than 90 per cent of the resource-rich waters as theirs.

Prabowo’s Japan visit, however, indicates he may take a tougher line when Indonesia’s sovereignty is at stake, according to Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro, head of the international relations department at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.

“Japan is seen as the ‘strongest face’ of the defence alliance with the US in the region. Prabowo can use Japan to get closer to the US, win them over and, at the same time, put pressure on China,” he said.

Prabowo has long been seen as a close friend of Washington, despite his chequered human rights record earning him a ban on entering the US and Australia at the turn of the century. That ban was overturned after he was installed as defence minister in Widodo’s cabinet in 2019.

Lina of CSIS said it was a “smart move” by Beijing to quickly extend an invitation to Prabowo, making it the first country that the former general visited following his victory in February’s national polls.

“I think they know that Prabowo’s preferences are more towards Western countries, especially the US. If we look at his schedule after his inauguration [in October] as president, he has to attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro [in November], after that he goes to Peru for the Apec summit,” Lina said.

“With a schedule like that, Prabowo will almost certainly stop by the US. China would be concerned if Prabowo’s first overseas trip as a president is to the US.”

Multiple Apple services, including the App Store, Apple TV+ and Apple Music, were down on Wednesday for users in the United States, according to the company’s status page.

Approximately 6,400 App Store users reported issues at the peak of the outage, according to Downdetector, which tracks outages by collating status reports from several sources, including users.

Downdetector also showed over 1,000 user reports for both Apple TV+ and Apple Music.

Apple did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In a new development, issues with Apple services including its App Store, video and music streaming platforms Apple TV+ and Apple Music, were resolved after outages that affected users across multiple regions, the company’s website showed.

Issues were also reported on Apple’s fitness service Apple Fitness+, as well as Arcade, Audiobooks, Books and Podcasts, according to Apple’s system status pages for several countries reviewed by Reuters.

Apple services were down for users in countries including the United States, Britain, India, China and Australia. The outage began at about 2213 GMT on Wednesday and lasted for more than an hour, the status pages showed.

More than 6,400 users flagged issues they faced while using the App Store, and both Apple TV+ and Apple Music had over 1,000 reports at the peak of the outage in the United States, according to Downdetector, which tracks outages by collating status reports from several sources, including users.

Apple did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the cause of the outages.

Federal Reserve officials will likely reduce their benchmark interest rate later this year, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday, despite recent reports showing that the U.S. economy is still strong and that U.S. inflation picked up in January and February.

“The recent data do not … materially change the overall picture,” Powell said in a speech at Stanford University, “which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2% on a sometimes bumpy path.”

Most Fed officials “see it as likely to be appropriate” to start cutting their key rate “at some point this year,” he added.

In his speech, Powell also sought to dispel any notion that the Fed’s interest-rate decisions might be affected by this year’s presidential election campaign. The Fed will meet and decide whether to cut rates during the peak of the campaign, in July and September.

Fed officials will face a delicate decision during those months and during their upcoming meetings in May and June. The policymakers must take care not to cut rates too soon or inflation could stay high — or even re-accelerate. Annual inflation ticked up in February to 2.5%, according to the central bank’s preferred measure, though that was down sharply from its peak of 7.1%.

Yet if Fed officials wait too long to reduce rates, the current high borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and business loans could seriously weaken the economy — even tip it into a recession.

Though inflation has cooled significantly from its peak, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. And average prices are still well above their pre-pandemic levels — a source of discontent for many Americans and potentially a threat to President Joe Biden’s re-election bid.

The recent pickup in inflation, though slight, has led some economists to postpone their projections for when the Fed will begin cutting rates. Rate cuts would begin to reverse the 11 increases the Fed carried out beginning in March 2022 to fight the worst inflation bout in four decades.

A lower Fed rate would likely lead, over time, to reduced borrowing rates for households and businesses.

Some economists now predict that the central bank’s first rate cut won’t come until July or even later. That expectation has fueled speculation on Wall Street that the Fed might end up deciding to delay rate cuts until after the presidential election. The Fed’s November meeting will take place Nov. 6-7, immediately after Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump has called Powell “political” for considering rate cuts that Trump has said could benefit Biden and other Democrats. Powell was first nominated to be Fed chair by Trump, who has said that, if he is elected president, he will replace Powell when the chair’s term ends in 2026.

In his speech Wednesday, Powell noted that Congress intended the Fed to be fully independent of politics, with officials serving long terms that don’t coincide with elections.

“This independence,” Powell said, “both enables and requires us to make our monetary policy decisions without consideration of short-term political matters.”

In the past, presidents such as Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon sometimes bluntly pressured Fed leaders to cut rates before elections to try to boost the economy. In contrast, recent presidents have avoided publicly pressuring the Fed, with the striking exception of Trump, who denounced Powell for raising the Fed’s benchmark rate in 2018 during the Trump presidency.

“If you look at the modern historical record, you’ll see that the Fed has been prepared to move or not move, and do what it thinks is the right thing for the economy … without regard to outside considerations,” Powell said, “and it’s important to just have people know that.”

When they met two weeks ago, Fed officials forecast that they could cut their benchmark rate three times this year. Still, nearly half the 19 policymakers pencilled in just two or fewer rate cuts.

Strong economic growth could diminish the likelihood of a Fed rate cut later this year for two reasons. One is that steady hiring and brisk consumer spending can lead companies to raise prices and thereby worsen inflation.

The other reason is that a healthy economy reduces the need for the Fed to cut rates, which tends to stimulate growth. Typically, the central bank reduces its key rate when growth stumbles and companies start cutting jobs. Powell and other officials have underscored that as long as the economy remains healthy, they can take time to assess the path of inflation and ensure that it’s headed back down to their 2% target.

Last week, a government report showed that consumer spending accelerated in February, and prices rose faster than is consisted with the Fed’s inflation target for the second straight month.

“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Powell said. “Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy.”

In remarks this week, some other Fed officials reiterated their expectations for three quarter-point rate reductions this year, while also underscoring that such cuts would depend on inflation slowing from the January and February readings.

“I think three is still reasonable, but it’s a close call,” Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve’s Cleveland branch, told reporters Tuesday.

Still, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said earlier Wednesday on CNBC that he envisions just one interest rate cut this year, likely in the final three months of the year.

Mester and Bostic are among the 12 policymakers with a vote on the central bank’s interest rate decisions this year. – AP