No Sign Of Rebound Despite Being Oversold
The COMEX Gold’s momentum remains weak, and it is yet to stage a technical rebound despite the RSI showing that the commodity is trading in the oversold region. It started yesterday’s session at USD1,725.20, RHB Research said
After trading between USD1,734.30 and USD1,720.70, it closed at USD1,728.10. The lacklustre performance suggests that the bulls remain at their weakest state. The commodity attempted to move higher yesterday but is yet to chart a fresh “higher high”.
As such, the bears remain firmly in control, and the commodity may see another leg on the downside to test the USD1,700 psychological support. Meanwhile, as momentum is weak, we expect the commodity to continue trading below the USD1,750 resistance in the coming sessions.
We keep our bearish bias until the momentum changes, or the trailing-stop is breached. Traders are advised to retain the short positions initiated at USD1,813.50 (14 Jun’s close).
To mitigate trading risks, the trailing-stop is fixed at USD1,770. The immediate support is revised to USD1,700, while the lower support stays at USD1,680. The immediate resistance is revised to USD1,750, followed by USD1,770.
Poised For An Uptrend Rebound
The E-Mini Dow managed to surpass above the 50-day average line yesterday after gaining 744 points to settle at 31,791 points – it was blocked by the 31,867-point immediate resistance. The index opened at 31,064 points and touched the 31,031-point low before climbing upwards throughout the session – it hit the 31,614-pointt high before the close, RHB Research said
It said that the strong bullish momentum printed yesterday suggests the recent consolidation process below the 50- day average line has just ended with a positive rebound capped by 31,867-point immediate resistance.
If the E-Mini Dow manages to sustain above the average line, it is likely to see the uptrend momentum persisting – breaching above the immediate resistance before hitting the next resistance at 32,491 points.
Supported by the strengthening of the RSI towards the 56% level, we hold on to our bullish bias. Traders should keep to the long positions initiated at 31,487 pts or 24 Jun’s close. To mitigate the downside risks, the initial stop-loss threshold is revised higher to 30,947 points, which was the low of 18 Jul. The immediate support has moved higher to 30,947 points or 18 Jul’s low. This is then followed by 30,585 points, which was 20 May’s low. The immediate resistance stays at 31,867 pts – 28 Jun’s high – and is followed by 32,491 pts, ie 2 Jun’s low.
Firming Up The Short-Term Rebound
The WTI Crude printed its third consecutive session of positive rebounds yesterday as it climbed USD1.62 to close at USD104.22 – getting closer to hitting the USD105.24 immediate resistance, RHB Research said,
It said that the black gold opened at USD102 and fell to the USD99.85 low before reversing upwards. It climbed strongly until the end of the session to hit the USD104.46 high.
The bullish “Three White Soldiers” reversal candlestick pattern suggests the buying pressure above the 200-day average line is expected to stay – at least in the coming sessions. However, since the WTI Crude is still trading below the 50-day average line – and the USD105.24 immediate resistance too – we expect it to trade sideways between the USD105.24 resistance and USD95.85 support in the immediate term.
For the medium term, RHB said that it said l think the downward movement below the 50-day average line remains intact. Following the medium-term outlook, unless the trailing-stop mark is breached, we retain our bearish bias.
RHB said that it recommend traders stick with the short positions initiated at USD115.31 or the close of 15 Jun. To manage the trading risks, the trailing-stop threshold is set at USD108. The immediate support is pegged at USD95.85 – 18 Jul’s low – and followed by USD90.56, ie 14 Jul’s low. Conversely, the immediate resistance set at USD105.24 – 8 Jul’s high – with the higher resistance at USD108.