Kenanga Investment Bank expects 2022 exports will be retained at 27 per cent compared with 26.1 per cent last year supported by the weaker ringgit despite the expectation of a subdued fourth quarter 2022 (Q4 2022) outlook.
The investment bank said exports expanded by 28.5 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) underpinned by strong demand from key trading partners and partly contributed by the weaker ringgit amid the strong US dollar driven by US Federal Reserve’s hawkishness.
“This is also attributable to elevated commodity prices amid rising geopolitical tensions while also due to easing supply-chain pressures,” it said in a research note today.
Last Thursday, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced that Malaysia’s exports in October rose by 15 per cent to RM131.63 billion, which made the 15th consecutive month of y-o-y growth.
Meanwhile, total trade in October 2022 expanded by 21.1 per cent to RM245.18 billion, marking the 21st consecutive month of double-digit growth.
In a separate note, AmBank Research said the total trade growth for October was the slowest pace since February 2022 with exports seeming to be showing signs of slowdown despite the healthy growth.
“This can be seen from the manufacturing sector, certain sub-products are coming off from their peaks including wood products and metal products which declined by 11.7 per cent and 8.1 per cent month-on-month, respectively.
“Both have been contracting for the fourth consecutive month,” it said.
The research house said manufacturing of rubber products was already down to its pre-pandemic level at around RM2 billion compared to its peak of RM7.5 billion in April 2021.
“The dissipating low base effects have helped eased exports growth and more export components are now posting single digit or even contracting annual growth as well,” it said.
AmBank Research said with the year-to-date exports growth average now at 26.4 per cent y-o-y, it revised upwards its export growth projection for 2022 to 25.5-26.5 per cent from 24-25 per cent previously.
It added that the growth would be slower in Q4 2022 due to the high base and slowing global growth.
