The year 2022 saw the oil and gas industry rebounding strongly as oil prices reached its highest level against crude oil benchmark prices after experiencing an unprecedented blow from the global economic contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the continuing energy market imbalances.
The race by governments around the world to reopen their economies as well as removing travel restrictions have contributed to a surge in demand despite the challenging economic landscape.
Amidst these challenges, PETRONAS continues to invest in business activities and growth projects. However, the lingering elects brought about by the pandemic such as prolonged movement restriction order, supply chain disruptions and players’ ability to recover have affected many project executions.
Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) Activity Outlook 2023-2025 cited the local upstream oil and gas (O&G) industry can expect a positive outlook for drilling rigs, well services and underwater services till 2025 due to the repair and maintenance activities required.
In 2022, the rig count increased compared to 16 rigs in 2021, due to the recovery in oil price and the relaxation of COVID-19 SOPs/directives.
Positive outlook is expected for the next three years given the increase in workover re-completion to reactivate idle wells and well Plug and Abandon (P&A) activity.
In 2023, 96 wells are planned to be drilled under Development, Appraisal and Exploration drilling programme. A suitable type of drilling rigs (e.g., Semi-Submersible/Drillship, TADR and Jack-Up) will be selected for the drilling activity based on the type of well. This includes 21 producing wells that are planned for workover activities where one or more variety of remedial operations will be carried out to increase production.
For planned Plug and Abandon (P&A) activity, 28 wells have been identified for abandonment where typically producing wells have reached their end of productive life.
The Medium Term Outlook – Post 2025 also sees a positive outlook for total rigs activities while continue focusing on enhancing and upgrading rig capability to deliver operational excellence and cost effective solutions. This outlook also extends for third party drilling services focusing on operational excellence and cost-effective solutions.
The reported also forecasts a steady outlook for subsea facilities, supply of line-pipes, and heavy lift barges given the steady amount of projects requiring wellhead platforms.
Petronas expects the uncertainty in the energy market to continue and to mitigate these factors, industry players have to be agile in responding to the changing energy landscape and embrace innovation as well as new solutions towards a lower-carbon future.
Group Procurement Vice President Freida Amat said “Petronas is committed to working together with our partners as the industry accelerates its efforts to decarbonise operations as part of a wider energy transition.”
“The transition into clean energy needs to happen now, to meet the changing energy landscape projected by 2050, which calls for greater collaborations amongst industries towards creating efficient solutions for better cost management, heightened customer centricity, value-creation and innovative solutions.
“This is crucial to avoid missing the window of opportunity to navigate the energy transition successfully,” she said.
In the upstream segment, Petronas has revised slightly higher the number of man-hours potentially required for offshore maintenance, construction and modification (MCM) to 11.88 million-12.3 million in 2023-2024, from 11.44 million-11.82 million previously.
It also revised upwards the expected demand for the number of rigs and hydraulic workover units (HWUs) to a total of 28, from 24 forecasted the year before.
The activity outlook for offshore fabrication of fixed structures also improved to eight to nine structures in 2023, followed by six to 11 structures in 2024.
Under these considerations, Petronas has lessened the number of lifts using heavy lift barges to five in 2023, from eight forecasted last year, although it expects a pick-up to 10-12 in 2024 and potentially further in 2025.
Petronas also sees a resumption in hook-up and commissioning (HUC) activities, following deferred projects in 2022 which is expected to resume and spill over in 2023 with at least five million man-hours, from at least 4.5 million previously forecasted.
In the offshore support vessel (OSV) segment, it sees higher demand in 2023-2025 compared with its previous forecast.
However, demand from production operations depicts slight year-on-year decreases “due to revision in production operations philosophy” such as unmanned platforms, the report cited.
