Nov 2022 saw sustained Industrial Production Index (IPI) growth (Nov 2022: +4.8% YoY; Oct 2022: +4.6% YoY) but slower Distributive Trade Index (DTI) (Nov 2022: +9.7% YoY; Oct 2022: +10.4% YoY) and Crude Palm Oil (CPO) output (Nov 2022: +2.8% YoY; Oct 2022: +5.1% YoY). Inputting these indicators into the monthly GDP tracker, it is estimated the monthly GDP grew +4.9% YoY in Nov 2022 (Oct 2022: +5.1% YoY) and averaged +5.0% in OctNov 2022 (3Q 2022: +14.2% YoY).
Estimated real GDP growth of +4.9% YoY in Nov 2022 IPI growth momentum was sustained (Nov 2022: +4.8% YoY; Oct 2022: +4.6% YoY) as pick up in manufacturing (Nov 2022: +4.8% YoY; Oct 2022: +4.2% YoY) and rebound in electricity (Nov 2022: +1.2% YoY; Oct 2022: -1.0% YoY) offset slower mining output (Nov 2022: +6.1% YoY; Oct 2022: +8.6% YoY).
Manufacturing growth was supported by exported-oriented industries (Nov 2022: +5.1% YoY; Oct 2022: +5.0% YoY) such as Computer, Electronics & Optical Products (Nov 2022: +14.1% YoY; Oct 2022: +10.3% YoY), Chemicals & Chemical Products (Nov 2022: +4.9% YoY; Oct 2022: +0.2% YoY) and Coke & Refined Petroleum Products (Nov 2022: +1.6% YoY; Oct 2022: +10.6% YoY), as well as domestic-oriented industries (Nov 2022: +4.3% YoY; Oct 2022: +2.5% YoY) including Food Processing Products (Nov 2022: +8.1% YoY; Oct 2022: +7.8% YoY), Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi-Trailers (Nov 2022: +9.4% YoY; Oct 2022: -5.7% YoY) and Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media (Nov 2022: +8.8% YoY; Oct 2022: +5.4% YoY).
Slower mining output growth reflected a deceleration in production of natural gas (Nov 2022: +8.2% YoY; Oct 2022: +11.4% YoY) and crude oil & condensate (Nov 2022: +3.1% YoY; Oct 2022: +4.8% YoY). Growth in DTI slowed for the fifth month (Nov 2022: +9.4% YoY; Oct 2022: +10.5% YoY) as trends in volumes of retail trade (Nov 2022: +18.3%; Oct 2022: +22.3%) and wholesale trade (Nov 2022: +0.8% YoY; Oct 2022: +0.6% YoY) outweighed that of motor vehicles trade (Nov 2022: +8.3% YoY; Oct 2022: +1.2% YoY). Meanwhile, CPO output fell to +2.8% YoY in November vs +5.1% YoY in October 2022.
Inputting these indicators into the monthly GDP tracker, Maybank IB estimated monthly GDP growth eased to +4.9% YoY in Nov 2022 (Oct 2022: +5.1% YoY), marking the second month of single-digit growth after four months of double-digit growth in June-Sep 2022 that averaged +14.8% YoY. Single-digit GDP growth is expected to persist in Dec 2022, taking a cue from the downtrend in the manufacturing purchasing managers index or PMI.
Further, the low base effect that boosted % YoY real GDP growth in JuneSep 2022 and 3Q 2022 due to the Delta variant-related lockdown and restrictions in June-Sep 2021 dissipated in the months of 4Q 2022 i.e. OctDec 2022. To note, Maybank IB’s 2022 full-year real GDP growth estimate of +8.0% implies the economy expands at a slower pace of +4.6% YoY in 4Q 2022 after the +14.2% YoY surge in 3Q 2022. Maybank IB expects the economic growth to decelerate to +4.0% in this year.
