The Australian dollar has enjoyed a tremendous rally on the back of the idea that a deteriorating US economy will slow, even reverse, US Federal Reserve rate hikes.
This is a rather optimistic view of the likely path of the Fed Funds Rate from here.
More likely, and the forecast here, is that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates a full further 100 points, pausing for perhaps 18 months to 2 years thereafter. Inflation will simply remain too high to cut rates.
This is an ominous outlook for a market that somehow believes a Fed Chairman, who said he wants economic distress to defeat inflation back down to 2%, will suddenly change his mind.
The Fed is in a battle for its very credibility after the transitory inflation fiasco. It is very likely, given the tradition of fighting high inflation aggressively, that the Fed will continue to hike even as the economy plummets. And plummet, the US economy is most certainly doing.
The real twist in the fate of the Australian dollar lay in its euphoria on the basis of a rebounding US and global economy later this year. As well as the opening up of China of course. In all regards, the market is likely to be bitterly disappointed.
All the data trends are still headed lower. There may be bounces in confidence here and there, but these are all deeply in the realms of the worst confidence levels ever. Often the lowest numbers ever recorded.
China will see more moderate growth than expected. The USA will have a severe recession. Europe will meander through a war footing.
This is not an environment endearing to a commodity exporter like Australia.
Traders and investors should remember that every RBA rate hike is simply another nail in the coffin of the Australian dollar on a yield comparison basis. The advantage remains clearly with the US dollar, even if the Fed were to immediately pause.
While the US dollar could come under renewed selling pressure after an initial rally in the days ahead, the Australian dollar may well be among the most exposed. Especially, after such a strong rally recently.
With property prices falling at their fastest rate in history, the stock market vulnerable, and the growing risk of a domestic recession, one wonders why the Australian dollar is as high as it is?
The suggestion here is that it is one of the most vulnerable markets in the world today.
A fresh 10% decline this year cannot be ruled out. Taking the down under dollar back to 62 cents.
Market insights and analysis from Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY Securities
