Maybank Investment Bank (MIB) today cited that Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth picked up in February, 2023 after it slowed the previous month.
Maybank Investment Bank Chief Economist Suhaimi Ilias said its estimated that the monthly GDP grew +6.2% YoY in Feb 2023 (Jan 2023: +4.3% YoY; 2M 2023: +5.3% YoY; 4Q 2022: +7.0% YoY) as compared to the full-year real GDP growth forecast of +4.0% (2022: +8.7%).
The firmer growth in Feb 2023 was based on the rise in the Industrial Production Index (IPI) (Feb 2023:+3.6% YoY; Jan 2023: +1.8% YoY), Distributive Trade Index (DTI) (Feb 2023:+10.6% YoY; Jan 2023: +8.5% YoY) and Crude Palm Oi (CPO) output (Feb 2023: +10.2% YoY; Jan 2023: +10.1% YoY).
“Key economic output indicators also posted firmer YoY on the faster growth in manufacturing (Feb 2023: +4.9% YoY; Jan 2023: +1.3% YoY) and electricity (Feb 2023: +1.1% YoY; Jan 2023: -4.3% YoY) amid the decline in mining output (Feb 2023: -0.5% YoY; Jan 2023: +5.9% YoY),” adding, Manufacturing growth quickened for export-oriented industries (Feb 2023:+3.9% YoY; Jan 2023: +0.6% YoY) such as Electronics & ElectricalProducts (Feb 2023: +5.5% YoY; Jan 2023: +0.4% YoY), Vegetable & Animal Oils & Fats (Feb 2023: +21.5% YoY; Jan 2023: +8.3% YoY) and Coke & Refined Petroleum Products (Feb 2023: +6.5% YoY; Jan 2023: +11.0% YoY) as well as domestic-oriented industries (Feb 2023: +7.0% YoY; Jan 2023: +2.7% YoY) such as Food, Beverages & Tobacco (Feb 2023: +11.3% YoY; Jan 2023: +4.4% YoY), Non-Metallic Mineral, Basic & Fabricated Metal Products (Feb 2023: +6.5% YoY; Jan 2023: -0.6% YoY) and Motor Vehicles, Trailers & SemiTrailers (Feb 2023: +9.5% YoY; Jan 2023: +12.2% YoY).
Meanwhile, mining output fell on account of lower production of crude oil & condensate (Feb 2023: -0.3% YoY; Jan 2023: +8.0% YoY) and natural gas (Feb 2023: -0.5% YoY; Jan 2023: +4.5% YoY), he said in a note today (April 12).
In contrast, CPO output growth momentum was sustained in Feb 2023 at +10.2% YoY vs +10.1% YoY in Jan 2023.
Growth in Dometic Trade Index also improved (Feb 2023: +10.6% YoY; Jan 2023: +8.5% YoY), boosted by double-digit growth in motor vehicles sales (Feb 2023: +24.0% YoY; Jan 2023: +9.2% YoY) and retail trade (Feb 2023: +14.0% YoY; Jan 2023: +16.2% YoY) along with pickup in wholesale trade (Feb 2023: +3.4% YoY; Jan 2023: +0.3% YoY).
Suhaimi added that although YoY GDP growth is seen to be higher in Feb 2023 vs Jan 2023, it was softer 2M 2023 vs 4Q 2022 and he estimates that although the monthly GDP grew +6.2% YoY in Feb 2023 (Jan 2023: +4.3% YoY; 2M 2023:+5.3% YoY; 4Q 2022: +7.0% YoY), the bank expects economic growth to decelerate to +4.0% this year from +8.7% expansion last year, overall.
