The internet and airwaves are abuzz with talk about Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the potential benefits or threats that AI may bring in the future. It is pretty clear that something very significant is happening and that information technology is now capable of doing things that were once considered to be science fiction, but does this mean that computers are now intelligent and what does it all mean for managers?
Intelligence is the capacity to acquire knowledge and then to apply that knowledge in a different place or time. By this most basic definition we already know that intelligence comes in many forms which are not human, and research has shown that even some plants have a rudimentary level of ‘intelligence’. However, most managers are not worried that the pot plant in the corner at reception is going to put them out of work, so is AI intelligent?
Over 70 years ago Alan Turing, considered by many to be the father of modern computing, suggested a simple test to determine if a machine is intelligent. He proposed that a human should sit at a computer terminal and type questions to be answered by two other ‘people’ that the human could not see or hear. The two ‘people’ would send typed responses and if the human could not tell the difference between the responses from the two ‘people’, and one of those ‘people’ was a computer, then the computer could be said to be intelligent and might even be said to be in possession of a mind. Current AI is able to respond in real time to human questions and writes perfectly plausible responses that make it impossible to be certain that the responses are not coming from another human, so AI has passed the Turing Test. Perhaps this means we should drop the epithet artificial and instead recognise that non-human or non-biological intelligences are now a reality. AI is only artificial in the sense that it relies on systems developed by humans, it would be more accurate to call it Alternative Intelligence. We are living in the very early stages of the Alternative Intelligence Revolution (AIR), and many commentators are telling us it will bring unprecedented change as the AIR enables some to fly, breathe and survive, while others will sink, drown and be washed away. So how will the AIR affect management and business more broadly?
There is no doubt that AI can do lots of things much faster, more comprehensively and more reliably than any human will ever be able to do, so it is assumed that many routine and repetitive tasks will be automated. This might be true for lorry drivers because adding AI capabilities to expensive vehicles is a minor percentage of the overall cost and the investment can be recouped over several years through reduced operating costs and increased use of the asset – robots don’t take breaks, go sick, demand pay rises or drive dangerously. However, AI will probably have little impact on jobs that involve some unpredictability or require little investment in specialist equipment so, for example, AI is unlikely to replace aircon installation and servicing technicians. Although aircon systems use standard components, it would be very expensive to design a robot and AI system which could cope with an almost infinite number of different aircon installation parameters from the location of the units through to different routes for cabling and drain pipes. If you manage people like aircon technicians you will have humans to supervise for the foreseeable future, even though you and they might travel in vehicles driven by AI.
Some have suggested that AI will eliminate the need for professionals like accountants and engineers because the computer can do the number crunching, quicker, better and cheaper. AI systems can already process invoices, monitor receipts or make payments, they can also aggregate information about supply chains, productivity, resource allocations, quality metrics, and generate reports that identify patterns, reveal inefficiencies, predict trends and assess risk. All this seems to be very impressive, but paradoxically it probably means there will actually be a greater need for managers, accountants and engineers, not less. Although it is relatively easy to automate basic book-keeping and data analysis, AI can only operate within the limits of what it has been programmed to do and the data it has available. It is important to have human intelligence to ask the correct questions, identify the relevant data to be aggregated, and then interpret the output to understand what the answers actually mean. AI might be able to complete a basic tax return, but it takes an accountant to understand the implications of changes in the tax code and then to program the AI system to minimise the tax your business will pay. Having lots of statistics and reports about production is only useful if there is an engineer who knows how to make improvements. The accountant and engineer will need to be managed, and managers will still make decisions, not least about where AI might actually be useful. AI is the only tool and while it will replace people in some fields, in others it will create the need for more humans, and it will take the intelligence of management to know the difference.
By Professor Hew Gill, Associate Provost, Sunway University
