The April 2023 TIV of 46,583 units (-41% MoM, -19% YoY) retraced significantly from last month’s record number due to fewer working days during the Hari Raya period when automakers took the opportunity to shut down their plants, at least for a week, for the annual routine maintenance. Nonetheless, the cumulative 4MCY23 TIV of 239,183 units (+10%) is still on track to meet full-year forecast of 720k units said Kenanga.
Noting that, Mar 2023 TIV was inflated by heavy deliveries ahead of the 31 Mar 2023 registration deadline to enjoy the exemption from the Sales and Services Tax (SST). Looking ahead, May 2023 TIV should pick up strongly as production normalises.
A detailed analysis of the passenger vehicle segment in April 2023 is as follows: Toyota’s (-25% MoM, +10% YoY) sales were mostly from its popular top models, namely the all-new Vios, Yaris, Corolla Cross, and Hilux. Based on sales projections, Toyota currently has 14k backlogged orders (3−6 months). Nissan managed to entice buyers as evidenced by its fast-moving inventory, but overall is still losing out in the all-new vehicles launching race. Currently, Nissan depends on the face-lifted Nissan Serena S-Hybrid, Navara, and Almera Turbo with 1k backlogged orders. Mazda sales were boosted by the exceptional response for its Mazda CX-30 CKD stocks which was recently rolled out on 8th March 2023, and continued to be driven by the CX-5 and CX-8. Based on sales projections, Mazda currently has 4k backlogged orders. Proton’s sales were mainly driven by the allnew X70 and X50 (3,293 SUV units sold, making up 36% of sales), and supported by the face-lifted Persona, Iriz, Exora and Saga. Based on sales projections, Proton currently has 40k backlogged orders.
Perodua’s (-41% MoM, -26% YoY) sales were propelled by the all-new Perodua Alza (massive booking backlogs of 20k units) and all-new Perodua Axia, with equally strong sales of the Bezza, MyVi, Ativa models. Based on sales projections, Perodua currently has more than 190k backlogged orders. Honda was driven by the City, Civic, and BR-V with exceptional response seen for the all-new HR-V which was launched on 14 July 2022. Overall, it is still affected by inventory shortages, especially for the newer models. Based on sales projection, Honda currently has 12k backlogged orders.
The house maintains its CY23 TIV projection of 720k units which will match the record level achieved in CY22. The optimism is underpinned by: (i) strong consumer confidence supported by a stable economy and a healthy job market, (ii) the affordability of motor vehicles underpinned by stable new car prices thanks to the deferment of new excise duty regulations (that could have resulted in prices of locally assembled vehicles increasing by 8%-20%) and potentially cheaper hire purchase cost with the introduction of reducing balance method in the calculation of interest charges, and (iii) attractive new models.
Projection is about 11% higher than the 650k units projected by Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA). The industry’s total booking backlogs have held up at a fairly strong level of 275k units compared to bookings of 300k units three months ago despite heavy deliveries. This indicates sustained strong buying interest, lured by attractive new model launches by players. We foresee a similar pattern throughout the rest of the year.
Sector Top picks: MBMR and BAuto
