The US dollar, a prominent player, recently hit a high at 103.82, creating a buzz in the market. However, this ascent wasn’t sustained, and the dollar retraced some of its gains overnight. The lack of a clear trigger for this rise, coupled with the absence of support from US yields, has injected a degree of uncertainty into the currency market.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) further contributed to the volatility with its recent policy update. While the yen initially rallied, the surge proved short-lived. USD/JPY experienced a notable swing, retracing from a low of 146.99 to a high of 148.70 post the BoJ update. Speculation is rife about the BoJ potentially abandoning its negative rate policy in April, mirroring the upward trend in Japanese yields akin to the US. However, the impact is somewhat muddled due to the recent shifts in the US yield curve.
China, a key player in the global economic arena, is contemplating measures to stabilize its stock market.
Reports suggest the mobilization of funds from offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises, aiming to purchase shares through the Hong Kong exchange link. While unconfirmed, this development underscores growing concerns about China’s economic health, contributing to the underperformance of Asian currencies in 2024.
To stimulate growth, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a cut in the reserve required ratio on February 5th, injecting approximately CNY1 trillion into the economy. This move reflects ongoing efforts to navigate economic challenges and sustain momentum.
The dollar’s recent resurgence, in the wake of China’s reported stock support fading during London trading, has raised eyebrows. The Hang Seng’s positive momentum contrasts with the relatively subdued performance of European and US equities. The lack of a clear catalyst for the dollar’s surge prompted an overnight correction, adding an element of unpredictability to the current market dynamics.
The US Republican Primaries are also influencing currency markets, with the Mexican peso signalling potential shifts. The recent endorsement of Donald Trump by Ron DeSantis and Trump’s victory in the New
Hampshire primary are casting doubt on other candidates, notably Nikki Haley. While premature, these events, coupled with Banxico’s potential entry into a rate-cutting cycle, may contribute to keeping the peso soft. However, market dynamics suggest a two-way movement for the peso, with anticipated demand driven by its appealing carry and the prevailing belief in a US dollar decline.
The short-term outlook for the dollar isn’t strongly bearish, yet recent moves appear somewhat exaggerated. Although rate cuts are priced into the market for this year, a sustained dollar rebound would likely require an uptick in short-term Treasury yields.
Market commentary and analysis from Luca Santos, currency analyst at ACY Securities
