The latest economic indicators from the February CPI report paint a challenging picture for the US Federal Reserve, hinting at persistently high inflationary pressures that are straying further from the desired targets.
Despite expectations for a slight easing, core inflation stubbornly stabilized at 0.4% month-on-month, with the yearly rate edging down marginally to 3.8% from 3.9%.
However, when looking at smoother measures of core inflation over the past few months, the trend is undeniably upward, with both the three-month and six-month annualized rates accelerating.
Headline CPI inflation also accelerated in line with expectations, reaching 0.4% month-on-month and a worrying 5.4% in annualized terms, straying significantly from the 2% target set for PCE inflation. The rise in energy prices contributed to this acceleration, while food prices remained unchanged.
A deeper dive into core inflation reveals concerning trends. Core goods inflation turned positive after eight consecutive months in negative territory, primarily driven by increases in prices for used vehicles and apparel.
Housing, particularly the shelter index, was a significant contributor to the monthly increase in core inflation, with rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rising.
However, there was a slight relief in non-housing core services inflation, although this remains elevated. Volatile factors such as airline fares and motor vehicle insurance also contributed to the overall inflationary pressure.
The Federal Reserve faces a daunting task as the economy grapples with persistent inflation despite recent periods of robust economic activity. While some hope for a temporary setback, others argue that the current inflationary pressures might be a consequence of strong economic conditions amidst loosening financial constraints.
However, forward-looking indicators suggest a potential softening in the labour market, which could alleviate some wage pressures and services inflation in the future.
Additionally, surveys indicate a possible easing in CPI housing inflation over the coming year, but nothing of that makes the market think that the FED won’t cut in June.
Looking ahead, the February PPI report and subsequent core PCE inflation data will provide further insights into the inflationary landscape.
However, regardless of the measure used, core CPI inflation appears to be stabilizing around 4%, significantly higher than the desired target.
The slight decline in super core inflation is welcome news but remains elevated, driven by increases in core goods prices, particularly used cars, and apparel.
In conclusion, the path towards achieving the inflation target remains uncertain, with risks potentially skewed towards delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The economic landscape calls for vigilance and adaptability as policymakers navigate through these challenging times.
Market commentary and analysis from Luca Santos, currency analyst at ACY Securities
