Thailand’s economic growth is expected to have slowed sharply in the second quarter as weaker household consumption weighed on the economy, with economists also forecasting a quarterly contraction.
15 economists said Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) was expected to expand 1.7% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, down from 2.8% in the first quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP was forecast to contract 0.6%, compared with 0.7% growth in the previous quarter.
The data, due on Aug 17, is expected to show households turning more cautious amid higher costs, while high household debt and an ageing population continue to constrain spending.
“Private consumption was likely (to) be the main drag. The oil shock rippled through costs across a wide range of goods and services, especially transportation. As a result, households have likely grown more cautious about spending,” said Eugene Tan, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Tourism also offered limited support, with foreign arrivals down 3.2% year-on-year as of Aug 1. Geopolitical uncertainty, higher travel costs and softer purchasing power in some major markets weighed on international arrivals.
Private investment, particularly in electronics and AI infrastructure, alongside strong exports, was expected to cushion the slowdown, although economists warned the export boost could fade after shipments were brought forward earlier this year.
Thailand’s economy is forecast to grow 2% in 2026.
Reuters
