Oil prices extended their gains on Monday as fresh strikes by US and Iranian forces on vessels raised concerns that disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East could persist.
Brent crude futures rose 52 cents or 0.54% to US$96.80 a barrel by 2354 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 66 cents or 0.72% to US$92.14 a barrel.
The latest gains follow a sharp rally last week, with Brent jumping 7.8% and WTI almost 10% after attacks resumed between the US and Iran, disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway is particularly important to global energy markets, with around a fifth of the world’s oil supply previously passing through the strait.
US Central Command said US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off the coast of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said it had also targeted three oil tankers travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz as well as three additional US vessels elsewhere.
Maritime intelligence firm Marisks described the attacks as a “major escalation in the maritime conflict”.
“Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping,” it said.
The disruption is already reflected in shipping activity, with Kpler data showing an average of just 10 commodity ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May.
Iran is also preparing to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday according to state media.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ left its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday as the producer group works on new quotas before deciding its next steps on production.
ANZ analysts said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by both sides appeared to be the most likely scenario and could delay the full recovery of Middle East oil supplies.
“We then expect exports to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, before a gradual reopening late in Q4 2026,” they said, adding that a return to pre-war throughput was not expected until late in the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027.
Reuters
