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Soft Macroeconomy Keeps Investors Sidelined, Although Banks Continue To Display Resilience: Kenanga

Domestic markets seem to anticipate more challenges to come, with the nation’s local domestic currency exhibiting perpetual weakness. Meanwhile, factors that were expected to boost overall economic activity failed to translate to meaningful immediate improvements.

“Not helping either are mixed signals sent by foreign markets with the US Fed’s “hawkish pause” to interest rates in attempts to tighten inflationary pressures there,” said Kenanga Research (Kenanga) in the recent Sector Update Report.

All that said, there may be a lower appetite for investors to remain with long-term positions, which typically point towards banking stocks. Kenanga’s Overweight call remains unchanged as despite the lower target prices, there could still be opportunities presented in the banking sectors in the near-term which should be wholly considered.

Although there could be some pressure with regards to interest margins from deposits competition, other aspects from the banking sector are expected to remain resilient. Continued loans growth should still move in tandem with economic activities.

Although the outlook for investment markets could appear mixed, stable interest rates should prevent excessive fair value losses to a bank’s portfolio, particularly in debt securities.

Meanwhile, credit cost guidance lean towards stable-to-improving reporting, notwithstanding possible write-backs as mentioned. More
materially, the lapse of prosperity tax imposed in CY22 provides a notable support to bottomline readings.

“Despite our reduction in target prices, we continue to have confidence in the banking space for its resilient earnings and with average dividend yield of 6% providing an attractive shelter for longer-term investors,” said Kenanga.

While Kenanga had previously promoted safety in rationalising their top picks, they believe certain stocks have now been oversold and present tactical opportunities for investors.

“We highlight CIMB as we believe investors may pay closer attention towards writeback prospects closer to the end of the year, and CIMB’s sizeable overlay relative to earnings present some handsome translation to earnings and special dividends. On the other hand, the group is also expected to report double-digit earnings growth in the coming years, where some peers could only see more modest performance,” said Kenanga.

Kenanga also likes Public Bank as the large outflux of foreign investors on the stock may be unwarranted, seemingly only justified by weakening RM undermining foreign portfolio holdings.

The group also appears arrested by uncertainties in its future shareholding structure, but we believe any clarity from here only offers upside prospects as overall operations are expected to be fundamentally untouched given its systematic importance to the local financial ecosystem. Being the safest bank in terms of asset quality readings, present levels offer cheap opportunities for entry.

“Lastly, we also consider AMBANK as we believe its current fundamentals are highly supportive of healthier discussions for M&As, which has in the past been frequently considered. The group is also one of the leaders in terms of SME profile, which is touted as a high-growth segment that could accelerate market share growth for the group,” said Kenanga.

European Central Bank Determined On Controlling Inflation

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a strong stance on the need to do more as it fears inflation remains out of control, according to its latest minutes.

Very good for the Euro. Not so much the European economy. Industrial production slowed to just 0.2% in May from 1.0%. 

What we have seen so far is that the ECB, the US Fed, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), have all gone beyond the tipping point where economies get crushed  by both higher prices and higher rates. 

While we look for a terminal rate on the horizon somewhere in sight for the US, the ECB is still full speed ahead over that horizon. Coming on top of other causes for dismay with the USA, this will only further amplify US dollar weakness. Thereby potentially rekindling inflationary pressures, and significantly boosting global Gold and Oil prices. 

Just to round out the idea that the Fed will be hiking at least one more time, the new jobless claims data came in lower. Pointing to a firm enough labor market to justify another attack by the Fed on that way too high core 4.8% number. 

For a spectacular snapshot of where the world economy is at, and where it is going, look no further than China exports. Always more about the rest of the world than China itself, they are in decline again. 

This is what the global economy truly looks like right now. And it is still headed south. 

Something to think about amidst the heady mix of euphoria over just the lower headline inflation number.

US Producer Prices have most definitely stabilised in the US. Up just 0.1% in June.

However, let’s see how those further down the supply line and services pricing forces continue to play out. This is where the nightmare for the Federal Reserve lives.

We have slowing exports from China, flat industrial output in Europe, manufacturing recession in the USA, and very keen to hike again western central banks.

Enjoy the upside momentum in equities for the moment, but do not get caught looking away from the down there on street level economic slowing.

Market commentary and analysis from Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities

Commentary: Malaysia’s Halal Food Industry’s Exponential Growth Continues To Soar

The Halal food industry has been steadily growing as demand for halal food products increases around the world today.

Halal foods, which are prepared according to the highest standards of hygiene that emphasise healthy and safety, are consumed by an international Muslim community of over two billion. More recently, halal foods have become an attractive food product for non-Muslims as well, who are becoming increasingly concerned with the quality and safety of their foods.

Malaysia has been a global market leader in the Halal food industry and was ranked first in the Global Islamic Economy Index for nine consecutive years. In 2022, the total halal export value was RM 59.46 billion, contributing 7.4% to countries GDP. The Malaysian Halal Food Industry is expected to grow to US$ 113.2 billion (RM500.17 billion) by 2023, and contributing 8.1% to national GDP. As of 2021, there were approximately 200,000 enterprises engaged in the halal food business.

A total of 3.97 billion was invested into the Halal food sector between 2020 and 2021. These included investments into Halal food tech platforms such as online cloud delivery apps and cloud kitchens. In particular the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods sector has been receiving much attention. Saudi Arabian Food Organisation C3 Arabia, is investing US$200 million to open 500 outlets over the next years in a joint venture with the investment group WK Holding. In the United Kingdom, Sainsbury will be launching over 12,000 FMCG products in the Middle East and Africa through its new operations port at Oman’s Sohar Port.

27 Group cited that the Malaysia food sector has also been attracting significant foreign investments, as US based meatpacking giant Tyson foods recently acquire at 49% stake in the Malayan flour mills poultry business for $104 million. Johsonville LLC, another US based company, also recently acquired the Malaysia B2B processed meats company PrimaBaguz.

As the industry continues to grow in popularity, what are the key questions surrounding the state of halal food industry today and its projected growth prospects moving forward.

What is Halal Food?

The term ‘Halal’ is used within Islamic communities to denote anything which is considered permissible under Islamic Syariah law. With regards to commercial products, the term halal is used to describe items that are permissible to be used or consumed under Islamic law, and extends towards pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and food products. Halal food refers to food items that are allowed to be consumed under Islamic law according to traditional beliefs and practices. Certain food items and ingredients which are not permitted are referred to as ‘Haram’ and are not consumed by those who practices the Muslim faith.

What types of food products are considered to be Halal?

Most food products and ingredients are considered to be Halal, so it is more useful to consider the items which considered to be non-halal. Some examples of non-halal food products include anything that has been prepared with alcohol, pork or carrion (animal carcass). Food items that also contain blood or blood by products are non-halal. In addition to the products themselves, the method of preparation of certain food items is also an important factor. Meat products, for instance, must be sourced from animals that have been slaughtered in the appropriate way. Halal standards may vary slightly within each Muslim country and are usually dependent on a national certification body for determining the appropriate standards.

What is the role of Halal certification?

In order for a product to be considered halal, it must first receive certification from an official Halal certification body. Businesses that wish to trade in halal food products must obtain the appropriate certification from the assigned national certification body. In Malaysia, the Department of Islamic Development Malaysia (JAKIM) is responsible for establishing whether a product is halal or not, and will provide the necessary certification accordingly.

How has the international Halal food market been performing?

Muslims spending on halal food was valued at US $ 1.27 trillion in 2021 and forecasted to reach US $1.67 trillion by 2025, and the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% between 2021 and 2025. The market has been in recovery in response to the supply chain disruptions brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent Russian-Ukrainian conflict. These disruptions have led to an increased global awareness over the need for ensuring greater food security, while also driving nations within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to strive for greater self-sufficiency with regards to food production.

Who are the biggest consumers of Halal food products?

Halal food products are predominantly consumed by members of the Muslim community, although there have been trends indicating that non-Muslims are showing greater in interest in Halal products due to the increasing demand for healthy and safe food sources. Pew Research Centre’s report from 2017 projected that the global Muslim population would increase by approximately 70% by 2050 as compared to 2010 levels. The report estimated that Muslims would make up about 29.7% of the world’s population by 2050.

Which countries are the biggest consumers of Halal food?

Muslim spending on Halal food products is the highest in Indonesia ($15.4 billion), Egypt ($120.1 billion) and Bangladesh ($125.1 billion), while the biggest importers of Halal food products are Saudi Arabia ($20.01), Indonesia ($17.54) and Malaysia ($16.21).

Which countries are the biggest exporters of Halal food?

The four biggest exporters of Halal food products are Brazil ($16.45), India ($17.45) the USA ($13.22) and Russia ($12.74). It is worth noting that these are non-OIC nations and make up approximately 29% of the global supply of Halal food products.

What are some key technological developments that are driving the industry?

One of the biggest drivers for innovation within the industry relates to the need for better traceability and logistics capabilities. Here in Malaysia, for instance, Malakat Ecosystem, developed the world’s first halal blockchain network, allowing users to trace the origins of imported beef products. The Singaporean company OneAgrix plans to launch a traceability solution for its platform in partnership with Switzerland owned INEXTO, a cloud-based global tracking solution. In Japan, the logistics company Nippon Express Co, launched a new halal-certified domestic air cargo transport service to expand its logistics capabilities within the country.

There have also been developments in the e-commerce sector, with companies looking to expand their operations into the B2B marketplace segment. The e-commerce platform Halal Street UK signed an MOU with Malaysian Alliance Islamic Bank (AIS) to connect Malaysian SMEs with the steadily growing UK Halal marketplace. Chinese Telecoms giant Huawei also signed an MOU with Malaysian company Alladin Group to establish a technology service network for a global halal-focused cloud-based social commerce platform.

There have also been greater investments into the agritech related R&D, with various companies around the world looking to develop novel farming technologies to support operations. In Nigeria, a country with a large Muslim population, the Agribusiness company Farm Konnect launched Africa’s first agricultural electronics centre to develop climate-smart farming and precision agriculture solutions. In Dubai, the government has launched Food Tech Valley, a specialised zone hosting farming R&D facility, smart logistics, vertical farming sections and incubators.

Another emerging technological trend is with respect to Cloud Kitchens. A cloud kitchen is where a food is prepared at designated kitchens that are linked to virtual restaurants. The food is picked up and delivered to customers who make purchase using online food delivery platforms. In the UAE, the cloud kitchen platform Kitopi managed to raise US $ 415 million in series C funding from investors, and will be expanding its operations into the Saudi Arabian region of Jeddah. Pakistani company Hotpod launched its own Kitchen as a Service (KaaS) platform and will start with three turnkey kitchens in Karachi.

How has the industry been responding to concerns surrounding food security?

The impact from the global pandemic as well as from the ongoing Russian-Ukanian crisis has been felt by many countries within the OIC region. In Bangladesh nearly 80% of households were forced to cut back on food expenses while the rising cost of feed led various poultry farms to close. In Nigeria, the government has asked for immediate FDI into its agricultural industry as 230 million people battle with chronic food insecurity The OIC Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS) has planned to implement 16 food security programs comprising the development of key commodities along with the establishment of the Islamic Food Processing Association (IFPA), a Grain Fund and a Food Reserve.

In response to these and other food security related issues, the industry has been moving to ramp up investment into industrial expansion and innovations to improve productivity. Saudi food company Almarai will be investing US $ 1.76 billion to double its share in the poultry market in the Middle East, while in the UAE Al-Ain farms in will be will be investing US $20 million to upgrade its dairy production capacity to 100 million litres.

Elsewhere, strategies are being employed by governments to meet national food security needs. The agricultural ministry of Oman has been moving to support farmers in efforts to diversify crop production and establish commercial fields to grow grapes, bananas, mangoes and sweet lemon. The NEOM Megaproject in Saudi Arabia will be building the largest fish hatchery in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) in partnership with the Tabuk Fish company. In Lagos, Nigeria, the state government launched a five-year plan to generate investments of up to US $ 10 billion in the agricultural sector. The state will also be developing an aquaculture centre for excellence, which will include a fish hatchery for 50 million fishes.

Several countries have also entered into bi-lateral agreements to support collective efforts at building food security. Egypt and South Sudan, for instance, will be working together on agricultural capacity building and establishing the integrated farming of crops, livestock and fish in South Sudan. Indonesia has invited Malaysian companies to help build the halal products industry in both countries, with a particular focus on agro-business and agritech. The UAE and India have developed a food corridor with the tech platform Agriota linking farmers in India with the UAE food industry.

What are some other industry trends worth taking note of?

There has been a move in recent years to improve procedures surrounding halal standards and certification in the industry. For instance, the OICs Standards and Meteorology Institute for the Islamic Countries (SMIIC) introduced a halal supply chain management system standard, covering transportation, warehousing and retailing. Indonesia has significantly revised its own Halal regulations to speed up, simplify and clarify processes with the aim of reducing processing time and facilitating certification for micro and small businesses.

There have also been moves by the Indonesian government to improve its halal food ecosystem through digital technologies. It introduced a new halal information system which puts forward all halal procedures and programs that integrated with halal marketplaces, apps, and e-money providers. The platform will allow the codification and digitalisation of certificates to improve the tracking of the value and volume of halal products.

There has also been a drive towards ensuring greater sustainability in food production within the industry, as consumers are increasingly looking for companies that practice sustainable production methods. In the Middle East, Nestle’s Al Maha factory in Dubai features the world largest solar plant, producing 85% of its energy output. The Agthia Group in UAE has opened a new packaging technology centre in Al Ain that will be developing innovative and sustainable weather proof packaging.

Increasing demand for vegan and plant-based products has also driven many companies to invest in the production of these types of goods. In the UAE, retail company Spinneys launched its ‘Power of Plants’ initiative to promote vegan and plant-based foods in response to a 600% growth in plant-based product sales. UAE based Al-Islami foods also launched its preservative free plant based ‘beef’ burger it an effort to offer plant-based halal products to its market base.

Where is the halal food industry headed in the next few years?

With the world’s Muslim population expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2030, demand for halal food products will continue to rise. The industry will also need to respond to increasing demands brought about by mounting food insecurity and countries will be looking to ensure that they achieve self-sufficiency in food production. As such, opportunities will likely continue to expand in the farming, agriculture and secondary processing sectors, as governments invest heavily in dairy, poultry and staple crops. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has achieved 60% self-sufficiency in its poultry production, and aims to reach a target of 80% by 2025. The country plans to expand production into the poultry, vegetables and fish sectors.

Companies will also be increasingly looking to provide solutions which emphasise convenience, such as ready to eat meals and fast-food deliveries. In Singapore, the Kimly Group announced the acquisition of a 75% stake in halal food service Tenderfresh for US $40.7 million. The US fast-food chain Chuck. E Cheese plans to open 50 stores in the Middle East, along with 25 new stores Saudi Arabia. The US chain Halal Guys plans to double its footprint in the Midwest region, while the South Korean convenience store chain CU released two ready-to-eat meal packages made with halal certified ingredients.

The halal food industry will also be aiming to increase production capabilities to support global food security as well as secure the means for properly countering the challenges brought about by climate change. To achieve these goals, there will likely be greater investment into agricultural technology as well as biotech solutions and smart farming operations. This can be seen, for instance, with the UAE signing an agreement with Israel to build greater capacities in agritech, plant-based and cell-based foods. In Nigeria, exports of an insect resistant for variant of cowpea have the potential to generate US $638 million in revenues for Nigeria in six years.

There are also opportunities waiting in the wings for cross-border and domestic agribusiness arrangements within OIS countries, as well as within the eCommerce marketplace. The introduction of platforms that are able to connect livestock and vegetable farmers with manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers both locally across borders can support government efforts to develop rural and agricultural areas while strengthening supply chains and reducing food waste. Well-developed and integrated online platforms such as these with their associated apps could go a long way towards supporting the continued growth of the industry.

What are some of the challenges the industry faces moving forward?

As the industry continues to grow, its main challenges centre around the need for technology to keep up with growing market demands as well as from potential disruptions that may be brought about by climate change. Many countries within the OIS network do not as yet have the necessary investment ecosystems to support the incubations of technology startups. While countries such as the UAE and Malaysia, for instance, might be able to compete the UK, France and Germany to a degree with regards to technological innovations incubations, most OIS nations will need to invest the appropriate resources to develop the necessary incubations mechanisms to support the development of competitive food tech companies.

The industry also faces the challenge of climate change, which has the potential to significantly disrupt food production and interfere with domestic and international supply chains. The increasing need for clean and reliable water sources, the potential threat of extreme weather events, and rising global temperatures are all considerations with countries and organisations need to be cognisant of when developing halal food products and services.

27 Group is a business consultancy and advisory organisation geared towards project development and socioeconomic transformation strengths. They provide project management and master planning services for clients within multiple industries and are also keenly involved in the development of socioeconomic initiatives within the public sector. Our guiding ethos of ‘Rebuilding Humanity’ drives us to deliver transformative projects with the right amount of care and attention, meeting both stakeholder expectations and the essential needs of the wider communities that the group serves.

The Global Whammy Of Rising Food Inflation

Global food prices have been falling since mid-2022 owing to several factors, including the resumption of exports from Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI).

The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Food Price Index declined by 19.7% year-on-year in April 2023 to 127.2%.

Data analyst Trading Economics reports that in the European Union (EU), although food inflation has gone down, but yet it is still in the double digit – 15.04% in May compared to 16.41% in the previous month.

In the bigger economies of the EU, France and Germany for instance, food inflation is at 13.6% and 13.4% respectively in June  compared to 14.3% and 14.5% in May.

In the Eastern European countries, Poland scored a 18.9% food inflation in May compared to 19.7% in the previous month, while for the same month, the Czech Republic has a food inflation rate of 14.5% (17.3% previously), Bulgaria 14.38% (15.85% previously) and Romania 18.73% (19.84% previously).

In the Baltic countries, Estonia scored a 19.5% food inflation in June compared to 20.4% in the previous month, while for the same month, Latvia’s rate was 14.4% (17.9% previously) and Lithuania 14.4% (18.2% previously).

In the UK, inflation currently stands at 8.7% in May, unchanged from April but food prices have gone up much more than that. Grocery inflation hit a high of 18.3% in May (19% in April) – adding more than £800 to the typical annual family food bill.

And their nemesis – Russia – has a food inflation rate of 0.2% (very low) in June compared to -1% in May.

For comparison, let’s take a look at the food inflation rate for some Asean countries. Brunei and Cambodia have a food inflation rate of 2.8% and 2.26% respectively in April, while Malaysia and Singapore each has a rate of 5.9% and 6.8% respectively in May, and Indonesia, 2.85% in June.

Only two Asean countries have a double digit food inflation – Laos (42.73%) and Myanmar (18.43%).

For those countries with double digit food inflation, it is not clear when food prices will start to come down as there are multiple factors that will need to stabilise before prices can reduce.

Most analysts opine the war in Ukraine needs to come to an end and then a period of stabilisation on all the other costs facing food businesses needs to take place before any meaningful reductions in food inflation can start occurring.

According to these analysts, there are a lot of complex reasons food prices have been going up since last year.

Rising labour, energy, and transport costs are major contributors to the increases, as well as the war in Ukraine and production difficulties caused by severe weather conditions.

The war in Ukraine has impacted commodities like wheat, grain and vegetable oils, while broader supply chain issues since the pandemic have also contributed.

And then there’s the cost of energy to manufacture food products. Salary rises due to inflation have also not helped keep food costs down.

It is the small businesses that produce and sell food which are feeling the pinch – many can only survive by putting up prices.

In going through all the data in Trading Economics, we can discern some interesting patterns.

In the first place there seem to be a general downward trend in food inflation in almost all countries starting from the middle of last year when the BSGI was introduced in July 2022, hot on the heels of a peak in food prices for months after the Ukraine war began in Feb last year.

Now just imagine if Russia withdraws from the BSGI when it expires on July 18; the downward trend in food inflation that the world is enjoying now will definitely be reversed, sparking a global food crisis again!

Also this downward trend in food prices is very marginal in the EU countries such that even after the fall in food prices there, food inflation remains at double digit rate in the EU countries, unlike the one digit figure experienced by almost all Asean countries with the exception of Laos and Myanmar.

Why would the EU countries’ food inflation mirror that of poorer countries like Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Senegal and Haiti, in term of being in double digit?

Could it be that it is the unilateral shock and awe sanction that the EU imposed on Russia has boomeranged on all EU countries such that their food inflation are in double digit whereas Russia’s food inflation is very low at 0.2%?

And almost all Asian countries including Asean, majority of whom do not support the EU sanction on Russia, have a one digit food inflation rate.

Isn’t this a strong enough reason for the EU countries not to put obstacles in the Russian exports of its food and fertilisers by acceding to the Russian request of lifting sanction on their agricultural exports so that it will continue to participate in the BSGI, and thereby prevent a global food crisis?

Also, taking into account that the war in Ukraine needs to come to an end for a period of stabilisation on all the other costs facing food businesses to take place before any meaningful reductions in food inflation can start occurring, isn’t it the time for the EU countries, majority of whose members are also in Nato to put pressure on the US to end the war by cajoling Ukraine to enter into negotiation with Russia?

After all, the world has already suffered enough from this war, and it needs to be stopped.   

Jamari Mohtar is the Editor of Let’s Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affair.

Ringgit Continues Uptrend Vs Greenback

The ringgit continued to strengthen against the US dollar at the opening today, following the decline in the United States’ (US) producer price index (PPI) in June, said an analyst.

At 9 am, the local note rose to 4.5425/5480 against the greenback from 4.5800/5845 at Thursday’s close.

The US PPI came in lower than expected at 0.1 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in June 2023 against consensus estimates of 0.4 per cent, while core PPI was at 2.4 per cent in June versus consensus estimates of 2.6 per cent.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist and social finance head Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the US dollar remained in a bearish mode with the US dollar index (DXY) hovering below 100 points.

“At the same time, China’s exports fell more than expected to -12.4 per cent y-o-y against the expectation of -9.5 per cent and imports dropped to -6.8 per cent compared with consensus estimates of -4.0 per cent,“ he told Bernama.

Against such a backdrop, he expects the ringgit to extend its rally as the US Federal Reserve might soften its tone, given the emerging disinflationary trend along with rising concerns over global growth prospects.

“The immediate support level is currently at RM4.5491. Should the USD/MYR breach such level, the next support level is located at RM4.4872,“ he noted.

Meanwhile, the ringgit was traded higher against a basket of major currencies.

It rose against the Japanese yen to 3.2998/3040 from 3.3069/3103 at Thursday’s close and appreciated vis-a-vis the euro to 5.0976/1038 from 5.1168/1218 yesterday and gained against the British pound to 5.9593/5.9665 from 5.9861/9919 previously.

The local note was also traded higher against other Asean currencies.

The ringgit went up versus the Singapore dollar to 3.4374/4421 from Thursday’s close of 3.4553/4590 and firmed against the Indonesian rupiah to 303.4/304.0 from 305.9/306.4 previously.

It had also appreciated against the Thai baht to 13.1362/1578 from 13.2481/2673 yesterday and climbed against the Philippines’ peso to 8.34/8.36 from 8.40/8.41 previously.

Bioeconomy Corporation Announces Dr Lee Boon Chye As New Chairman

Malaysian Bioeconomy Development Corporation (Bioeconomy Corporation) announced the appointment of YBrs Dr Lee Boon Chye as its new Non-Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors on 11 July 2023.

Appointed by the Prime Minister, Dr Lee Boon Chye succeeds YB Datuk Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid who retired on 16 December 2022.

YBrs Dr Lee carries with him vast and notable experience primarily in the medical sector. He is currently a Resident Consultant Physician and Cardiologist at KPJ Ipoh Specialist Hospital.

Amongst his illustrious achievements include a term as Deputy Minister of Health from 2018 to 2020 and three terms as Member of Parliament Malaysia (Gopeng) from 2008 to 2012.

He was also a former Member of Parliamentary Select Committee on Health, Science and Innovation.

Besides currently sitting on the boards of several private companies, YBrs Dr Lee is also instrumental in the development of the healthcare tourism industry in Malaysia through his directorship in Malaysian Healthcare Travel Council.

Seasonally Stronger Work Orders, Vessel Utilisation Will Raise Dayang’s Earnings, RHB Upgrades To Buy

RHB Research (RHB) upgrade on Dayang Enterprise (Dayang) is premised on lower project delay risks, as Dayang is able to achieve resolutions with clients.

“We expect earnings to pick up sequentially in 2Q-3Q23 backed by seasonally stronger work orders and vessel utilisation. Dayang stands a good chance to win a portion of the newly tendered asset integrity backlog clearance (ABC) project which could be awarded by 4Q23,” said RHB in the recent Malaysia Company Update Report.

Following the discussion with clients, Dayang guided that sufficient notice would be given whenever there is a vessel shortage and Dayang is allowed to source its own vessel with a minimal management charged to client. This would resolve the vessel availability issue.

The three delayed projects were scheduled to kick start this year: one in May and two in August. With the issue being resolved, RHB sees lesser project delay risk and expects Dayang’s work orders to pick up sequentially in 2Q-3Q23.

“Marine charter segment wise, we understand that utilisation could reach 70% in 2Q23 and potentially hit 80% in 3Q23. Full year vessel utilisation guidance remains unchanged at 60-65% while the daily charter rate was increased 7-10% on average YoY,” said RHB.

Dayang submitted a new tender on ABC project which involves inspection, job-scoping, and quick fix on the existing platforms across Malaysia. It is a three-year contract with five packages available and total contract value of RM4-5bn.

RHB understands that Dayang participated in the tenders process and the contract award will be known by 4Q23. Also Dayang has been farmed in some ad-hoc works starting from August to December this year with monthly work orders of RM15-20m.

Assuming Dayang secures one package worth RM1.0bn, this could translate into an additional RM300m in revenue. Dayang secured a contract extension until the end of 2024 for ROC Oil (Sarawak) SB’s procurement, construction, installation, hook-up, and commissioning services job.

There is a possibility that MCM contracts will be extended to end-2024 and a new tender will happen by mid of next year for both MCM and i-HUC contracts.

RHB maintains their earnings estimate as they have yet to factor in any project win for the ABC tender. Target price has been increased to RM1.60.

Such valuation is to factor in a better tender prospect and lower project delay risks, as Dayang is able to achieve resolutions with the clients following the change in vessel chartering model.

Downside risks are the slow-down in new work orders, weaker oil prices, and higher operating costs.

Political, Economic Clarity From Conclusion Of State Election Shall Lift Investor Sentiment: RHB Research

Pic credit: BBC

The conclusion of the state elections by August, in which RHB Research (RHB) expects the status quo to be maintained, will see political risks ease to allow room for the Pakatan Harapan-led administration to implement its reform agenda.

RHB’s positive view on the prospects of global growth and the peaking of the US interest rate cycle will be helpful for emerging market risk assets, even as investors start to look ahead into 2024.

“A near-term core defensive strategy remains appropriate, although investors should capitalise on opportunities to accumulate quality stocks on weakness,” said RHB in the recent Malaysia Strategy Report.

Despite the unity coalition enjoying a two-thirds parliamentary majority, the political climate since the conclusion of the 15th general election has been nothing less than tense.

The unity government construct is unprecedented considering the disparate political ideologies, coupled with persistent agitation by the opposition.

The coming state elections could be a watershed for equity markets, as the tone of the poll results will be a gauge of popular support for the unity coalition and influence the quantum of political will available to implement reforms.

“Our base case scenario is for the political status quo with the unity government coalitions to retain control of Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan,” said RHB.

The pace of reforms post-elections will be key to establishing market confidence on how structural changes will evolve going forward.

RHB Economics expects the global macroeconomic recovery to commence in 3Q23, and noted the early signs of a bottoming-out in trade, industrial production, retail sales and Purchasing Managers’ Index data in many major economies in Asia ex-Japan.

Asia is the factory of the world, so the aforementioned signals already suggest that green shoots are here, and that these will blossom in the near term.

“Our leading indicators of global growth suggest that a rebound in global industrial production has already commenced, and will gather further strength in the next few months,” said RHB.

The wealth effect from a sustained rise in global stock and housing markets will impact consumer spending positively in major developed market and emerging market economies.

Equity markets will likely be volatile in the run-up to the state elections. Greater political and macroeconomic clarity, in line with RHB’s view, will be tailwinds for equity markets, and lift investor sentiment.

While valuations are not especially demanding, at 13.6x FY24 Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E), the relatively fragile corporate earnings are a drag on equities, as is a persistently weak USD/RM rate.

Robust fundamentals are a key investment consideration, and market weakness should be seen as opportunities to gradually deploy cash hoards to add to equity positions to take advantage of Bursa Malaysia’s laggard status.

“We have OVERWEIGHT calls on the bank, oil & gas, utilities, basic materials, non-bank financial institutions, healthcare and property sectors,” said RHB.

MITI To Engage In Vital Discussions Regarding Malaysia’s Economy At The CPTPP

The Malaysian Investment, Trade & Industry (MITI) will be engaging in discussions on digital economy, green economy, and a stronger integration of Malaysia’s Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs) into the global supply chain at the 7th Commission Meeting of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) that will be held from 15 to 16 July 2023 in Auckland, New Zealand.

MITI’s delegation will be led by Minister of Investment, Trade & Industry Tengku Datuk Seri Utama Zafrul Aziz who said, “Apart from digital economy and green economy, MITI wants to ensure that the benefits from the CPTPP will trickle down to the Malaysian people and businesses, particularly the SMEs who must be better integrated into the global supply chain.”

Further, the 7th Commission Meeting of the CPTPP is highly anticipated to accept the United Kingdom as the 12th member of CPTPP.
At this annual CPTPP Commission meeting in New Zealand, the CPTPP Ministers will continue their engagement in ensuring effective implementation of the CPTPP that was signed by 11 founding Parties on 8 March 2018 in Santiago, Chile.

As the Chair of the CPTPP for 2023, New Zealand is expected to drive the discussion on CPTPP priority areas of focus in 2023, notably advancing green economy and enhancing digital economy facilitation including customs administration and processes.

At the end of the meeting, the ministers are expected to issue a Joint Ministerial Statement, in which amongst others, the Commission will welcome the entry into force of the Agreement for Chile on 21 February 2023 and Brunei Darussalam on 12 July 2023.

Taking advantage of the presence of Ministers from key trading partners, Zafrul is also scheduled to have bilateral engagement with counterparts from New Zealand, Canada and Japan to discuss trade and investment matters of mutual interest.

The CPTPP members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. The Agreement is home to 500 million people with a combined GDP of USD13.5 trillion.

PDP Investigating Allegation Of Personal Data Leakage Incident Of Misi Rakyat Website

Pic: Kaspersky

The Department of Personal Data Protection (PDP), Ministry of Communications and Digital (KKD) takes seriously the alleged incident of hacking of the Misi Rakyat website belonging to Bangsa Bertauhid Sdn. Bhd. which was uploaded by a hacker in the BreachForums website and Telegram application on July 3 and 4, 2023.

Following the allegation, PDP received a report of the Misi Rakyat website data leakage incident from MyCERT, CyberSecurity Malaysia (CSM) on 4 July 2023.

On the same day, JPDP contacted the company Bangsa Bertauhid Sdn. Bhd. to obtain confirmation regarding the incident and sample data involved. JPDP has also ordered the company to conduct an internal investigation and complete a Data Leakage Notification (DBN) form.

JPDP has started an investigation into this incident after receiving the DBN form from Bangsa Bertauhid Sdn. Bhd. on July 10, 2023.

The founder of the Misi Rakyat website has also been summoned to attend the JPDP for the procedure of recording the conversation on July 13, 2023.

JPDP is working with CSM to carry out further investigations into this incident to identify if there is any breach under the Personal Data Protection Act 2010 [Act 709].

JPDP urges all companies and organizations that process personal data in commercial transactions to comply with the Principles, Regulations and Standards of Personal Data Protection under Act 709.

Companies and organizations are also reminded to be more careful when processing personal data to avoid personal data leakage incidents.

WHO: Aspartame Sweeteners ‘Possibly Carcinogenic’

The WHO said Friday it was now classifying aspartame, an artificial sweetener commonly used in soft drinks, as “possibly carcinogenic to humans” – though the acceptable daily intake level remains unchanged.

“We’re not advising companies to withdraw products, nor are we advising consumers to stop consuming altogether,” said Francesco Branca, the World Health Organization’s nutrition and food safety director.

“We’re just advising for a bit of moderation,” he told a press conference presenting the findings of two reviews of available evidence on aspartame.

The WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) carried out its first-ever evaluation of the carcinogenicity of aspartame at a meeting in Lyon, France, from June 6 to 13.

“The working group classified aspartame as possibly carcinogenic to humans,” the WHO said.

It was placed in category Group 2B, based on the limited evidence available, which specifically concerned hepatocellular carcinoma – a type of liver cancer.

There was also limited-strength evidence regarding cancer in experimental animals.

The Group 2B category also contains extract of aloe vera and caffeic acid found in tea and coffee, said Paul Pharoah, a professor of cancer epidemiology at the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles.

“The general public should not be worried about the risk of cancer associated with a chemical classed as Group 2B,” he said.

The IARC’s Mary Schubauer-Berigan said the limited evidence for hepatocellular carcinoma came from three studies, conducted in the US and across 10 European countries.

“These are the only epidemiological studies that examined liver cancer,” she told reporters.

Branca added: “We have, in a sense, raised a flag here, indicating that we need to clarify much more the situation,” but nor is it “something which we can dismiss”.

9-14 cans a day

A second group, JECFA – the Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives formed by the WHO and its fellow UN agency the Food and Agriculture Organization – met in Geneva from June 27 to July 6 to evaluate the risks associated with aspartame.

It concluded that the data it evaluated indicated no reason to change the acceptable daily intake (ADI), established in 1981, of zero to 40 milligrammes of aspartame per kilogramme of body weight.

With a can of sugar-free soft drink typically containing 200 or 300 mg of aspartame sweetener, an adult weighing 70 kg would therefore need to consume more than nine to 14 cans per day to exceed the ADI, assuming no additional aspartame intake from other sources.

“The problem is for high consumers,” said Branca.

“Somebody who drinks a soda every once in a while… shouldn’t have a concern.”

Sodas, gum and cereals

Aspartame is an artificial chemical sweetener widely used in various food and beverage products from the 1980s onwards.

It is found in diet drinks, chewing gum, gelatin, ice cream, dairy products such as yoghurt, breakfast cereals, toothpaste, cough drops and chewable vitamins.

The International Sweeteners Association said that Group 2B classification puts aspartame in the same category as kimchi and other pickled vegetables.

“JECFA has once again reaffirmed aspartame’s safety after conducting a thorough, comprehensive and scientifically rigorous review,” said ISA chief Frances Hunt-Wood.

But for Camille Dorioz, campaign manager at the consumer organisation Foodwatch, Friday’s update leaves a “bitter taste”.

“A possibly carcinogenic sweetener has no place in our food and drink,” he said.

‘Drink water’

Back in May, the WHO said artificial sweeteners, used to replace sugar in a vast range of products, do not help in losing weight and can have serious health effects.

The UN health agency released guidelines advising against using so-called non-sugar sweeteners.

Branca was asked about what consumers should do in the light of Friday’s update, when trying to choose what was best between a soft drink with added sugar, and one with added sweeteners.

“There should be a third option considered, which is to drink water instead – and to limit the consumption of sweetened products altogether,” he replied.

“There are alternatives that do not contain either free sugars or sweeteners – and those should be the products that should be preferred by consumers.” – AFP

The Malaysian Direct Distribution Association Celebrates 30 Years of Industry Excellence

The Malaysian Direct Distribution Association (MDDA) marked its 30th anniversary recently with a Gala Dinner held at EQ Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. The event was opened by a speech by Datuk Azman Mohd Yusof, Secretary General from the Ministry of Domestic Trade and Cost of Living (KPDN) and attended by leading industry players and delegates from Direct Distribution Associations regionally.

In his opening speech, Datuk Azman Mohd Yusof congratulated MDDA on their milestone and lauded the association for its various achievements throughout the years. 

“MDDA holds a crucial position in Malaysia’s Direct Selling Industry, playing a vital role in its growth and development,” said Datuk Azman. 

He added that through extensive training programs and knowledge-sharing platforms, MDDA has empowered individuals and businesses, fostered innovation and improved the skills of many direct selling industry players. 

MDDA’S commitment to professionalism, adherence to high standards, and efforts in promoting ethical practices and transparency has elevated the industry’s reputation. Even amidst the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the direct selling industry in Malaysia has shown resilience, he said.

According to Dato Sri Dr. Barani Karunakaran, President of MDDA, the association has embarked on a determined course to become the top direct selling association in the country, setting its sights on solidifying Malaysia’s position on the global stage of the direct selling industry. 

He said that MDDA’s ambitious plan aligns with the surge of revenue from the direct selling industry in Malaysia valued at RM 25 billion in the year 2020 to RM 27 billion in the year 2021, signalling a strategic shift toward this growing business model globally. The initiative is expected to generate substantial economic benefits, increase the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), promote entrepreneurial growth, and create significant regional job opportunities. 

Since its establishment in 1993, MDDA has grown to include 105 member companies, fostering a close relationship with KPDN in addressing industry challenges. The association has been actively amending the Direct Sales and Anti-Pyramid Scheme Act 1993 and resolving unauthorised selling and price markdowns on third-party platforms. MDDA is also continuously working together with KPDN enforcement team on eradicating issues in the Direct Selling Industry like get rich quick scheme, money game and pyramid scheme by educating the public through its series of MDDA Straight Talk in Malay, English and Mandarin. Panels including industry leaders, KPDN officials and Royal Malaysia Police (RMP).

The event also saw the signing of the Regional Association Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between MDDA, AP2LI Indonesia, and FDSA India. The MoU signifies a collaborative effort to strengthen the direct selling industry across the region. Dato Sri Dr. Barani Karunakaran, MDDA President, Mr. Andrew Susanto (AP2LI), and Mr. A P Reddy (FDSA) represented their respective organisations during the signing ceremony. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) will assist all MDDA members in expanding their markets globally and promoting Malaysian products in the global market.

In addition, MDDA presented the MDDA Intrapreneur Program, endorsed by the Direct Selling Unit of KPDN. The program aims to enhance professionalism in the direct selling sector and is claimable under the Human Resources Development Fund (HRDF). Certificates were handed over to 20 recipients, acknowledging their participation in the program.

The Gala Dinner included the presentation of various awards, honouring companies that have demonstrated excellence, innovation, and social responsibility. Among the winners were Meganet4U Sdn Bhd, ShoppyMore Global Sdn Bhd, GMJ Konsortium Sdn Bhd, VKids Trend Sdn Bhd, Destina 1 International Sdn Bhd, M-Plan Sdn Bhd, Melilea (M) Sdn Bhd, Asia MLM Solutions Sdn Bhd, Bio-Science Marketing Sdn Bhd, Jeunesse Global Sdn Bhd, Netturul Resources Sdn Bhd, Era Edar Marketing Sdn Bhd and RCC Worldwide (M) Sdn. Bhd. 

Malaysian Direct Distribution Association would like to extend its deepest gratitude to its Platinum Sponsors, VKids Trend and Melilea Malaysia Sdn Bhd. Their generous support played a pivotal role in ensuring the success of the 30th Anniversary Gala Dinner.

The MDDA 30th Anniversary Gala Dinner provided an ideal platform to honour achievements, strengthen industry alliances, and set the stage for a promising future in the direct selling sector. As MDDA continues to champion professionalism and excellence, the industry can anticipate even greater advancements in the years ahead.

Oil Prices Up On Tighter Supply, Lower U.S. Inflation

Oil prices rose on Friday on support from tighter supply amid issues in Libya and Nigeria and easing U.S. inflation, which markets hope may bring an end to interest rate hikes in the world’s biggest economy.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $81.63 per barrel at 0028 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to $77.24.

U.S. consumer prices rose modestly in June at the smallest annual increase rate in more than two years as inflation continued to subside. Producer prices also barely rose in June, and the annual increase was the smallest in nearly three years.

Both indicators gave markets a hope the U.S. Federal Reserve could be closer to ending its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s, according to Reuters.

“Positive risks sentiment swept over markets, spurred by more data showing a deceleration in U.S. price pressures, raising hopes that the Fed may be ‘one and done’ on additional rate hikes,” ANZ Research said in a client note on Friday.

On Thursday, a number of oil fields in Libya were shut down in a protest by a local tribe against a kidnapping of a former minister. Separately, Shell has suspended loadings of Nigeria’s Forcados crude oil due to a potential leak at a terminal.

Protests in Libya alone could take more than 250,000 barrels of oil per day from the market, ANZ Research said.

“This comes amid signs that recent cuts to supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia are biting,” it added.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s biggest oil exporters, this month agreed to deepen oil cuts in place since November last year, providing further support to crude prices.

Potential Earnings Contribution From KLK Land’s Upcoming Retail Mall Supports Maybank IB’s Buy Call

Albeit small for now, Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) believes KLK Land is poised to step up on its earnings contribution to the group in 3 years’ time as its upcoming retail mall at Bandar Seri Coalfield (BSC) will catalyst future launches and sales. A revival of the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail (KL-SG HSR) may also catalyse its Johor property developments.

“Buy on KLK with an unchanged target price of RM23.90 on 17x FY23E price-earning ratio,” said Maybank IB in a recent report.

“We understand the mandate given by the Board to KLK Land is to unlock the value of the KLK’s existing landbank at the right time, and not chase after revenue growth at the expense of margin,” the research house added.

This implies that KLK Land is unlikely to acquire pockets of third party land for standalone developments for now. Still, KLK Land has enough on its plate.

Over the past 3 years, the property division averaged RM182m/RM59m in yearly revenue/ operating profits (from BSC alone), contributing to less than 5% of KLK’s group profits.

However, there are a few catalysts that can help propel KLK Land’s contribution in the medium term. To us, the proposed new mall, targeted to open by end-2025, will complete the amenities offered at BSC for a sustainable township, and catalyst future developments there as BSC forms part of the 6,600 acres land earmarked for property development in that area.

“There are recent talks of a potential revival of the KL-SG HSR. If it is revived based on the original alignment, KLK may be a beneficiary as one of the proposed stops is purportedly located next to its 500-acres Gerbang Nusajaya Development under Scope Energy SB,” said Maybank IB.

Besides this, KLK Land has another similar joint venture setup in Kulai, a 2,500-acres Fraser Development, zoned for industrial and mixed development that could be launched if interest in Johor property market picks up.

Bursa Malaysia Dragged Slightly Lower, May Remain Choppy On Friday

Late profit taking dragged the FBMKLCI Index to close at its intraday low, bucking regional uptrend. At day’s end, the benchmark index fell 1.83pts, or 0.13%, to 1,396.23. Decliners were led by PETDAG, IHH and MISC.

At 9.17am, the FBM KLCI opened at 1401.08.

RHB Retail Research, in a note today (July 14), said the FKLI underwent a bearish price action and fell below the 50-day SMA line.

It closed 5.50 pts weaker, at 1,396.50 pts. The index struggled to maintain its position above the moving average line, opening higher at 1,405 pts but eventually closing in negative territory. It hit a low of 1,394.50 pts.

The failure to sustain above the medium-term moving average line suggests sentiment remains cautious.

However, the RSI momentum indicator remains above the 50% level, indicating this is a mild pullback to retest the 50-day SMA line in the near future.

The counter-trend rebound should remain intact, as long as it stays above the support of 1,372 pts.

If the momentum gaining speed again, the index may rise towards the immediate resistance of 1,410.50 pts, then 1,440 pts.
RHB will maintain a bullish bias unless it breaches the stop-loss point.

Traders should stick with the long positions initiated at 1,389 pts, ie the close of 16 Jun. To manage the downside risks,the initial stop-loss is set at 1,372 pts.

The immediate support is still at 1,389 pts – 16 Jun’s close – followed by 1,372 pts. Towards the upside, the nearest resistance is pegged at 1,410.50 pts – 29 May’s high – followed by 1,440 pts.

Maybank Investment Bank said market breadth, however, remained positive with gainers outnumbering losers by 517 to 377. A total of 2.93b shares valued at MYR1.78b changed hands. The market will remain choppy on the last trading day of the week.

Profit taking may intensify ahead of the weekend break, and this may weigh on sentiment. Automotive stocks, however, may gain some interest on news about PM Anwar’s meeting with Elon Musk today.

Technically, Maybank IB expects the FBMKLCI Index to range between 1,380pts and 1,410pts today, with supports remaining at 1,370pts and 1,350pts.

CGSCIMB said today that the local benchmark FBMKLCI (KLCI) bucked the positive trend, sliding 1.83pts or 0.13% to end the day at 1,396.23.

Technology (+1.20%) topped as the best performing sector, followed by construction (+0.67%) and financial services (+0.31%). On the flip note, healthcare (-0.69%), REIT (-0.39%) and energy (-0.33%) were the top laggards.

Trading volume rose to 2.93bn (up from 2.82bn on Wednesday) while trading value climbed to RM1.78bn (up from RM1.73bn previously).

Market breadth stayed positive four days in a row as 517 advancers against 377 losers. The benchmark formed a black candle yesterday as the index failed to close above both the 50-day EMA and 1,400 psychological mark.

Buying interest appeared to have taper off in the afternoon session after briefly surpassing both levels. The bulls may attempt another push today to try to take out these resistances, which would translate to a short-term positive for KLCI if the action is successful.

The 1,416 level is the next resistance.

Conversely, breakdown below 1,376 would likely put the index on course for 1,355-1,360 next.

CGSCIMB’s portfolio stays in risk-off mode this week, their portfolio would revert to risk-on mode next week if the benchmark can close above 1,392 today.

Singapore Q2 GDP Grows 0.7% As Expansion Remains Tepid

Singapore’s economy grew 0.7 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, faster than the 0.4 per cent growth in the previous quarter, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday (Jul 14).

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, Singapore’s economy expanded by 0.3 per cent. This is a turnaround from the 0.4 per cent contraction in the first quarter, averting the risk of a technical recession.

The advance GDP estimates for the second quarter are computed largely from data in the first two months of the quarter, from data in April and May.

They are intended as an early indication of GDP growth in the quarter and are subject to revision when more comprehensive data become available.

SECTOR PERFORMANCES

The manufacturing sector continued to see weak performance.

It contracted by 7.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, a deterioration from the 5.3 per cent contraction in the previous quarter.

“The weak performance of the sector was due to output declines across all manufacturing clusters, except for the transport engineering cluster,” said MTI.

The construction sector grew by 6.6 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, extending the 6.9 per cent growth in the first quarter. Growth was supported by expansions in both public and private sector construction output.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the sector expanded by 2.6 per cent in the second quarter, accelerating from the 0.3 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.

Among the services sectors, the wholesale and retail trade as well as transportation and storage sectors collectively grew by 2.6 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, a turnaround from the 0.7 per cent contraction in the previous quarter.

All sectors within the group expanded during the quarter.

“Growth in the transportation and storage sector was mainly supported by the water and air transport segments, while that in the wholesale trade sector was driven by the machinery, equipment & supplies and fuels and chemicals segments,” said MTI.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the sectors as a group expanded by 3.4 per cent in the second quarter, rebounding from the 0.5 per cent contraction in the preceding quarter.

The group of sectors comprising the information and communications, finance and insurance as well as professional services sectors grew by 1.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter, extending the 1.3 per cent growth in the previous quarter. – CNA

IMF: ‘Pockets Of Resilience’ Seen Amidst Slowing Momentum In Global Economy

The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that first quarter global growth slightly outpaced projections in its April forecasts, but data since then has shown a mixed picture, with “pockets of resilience” alongside signs of slowing momentum.

The IMF said in a briefing note for a G20 finance leaders meeting in India next week that manufacturing is showing weakness across G20 economies and global trade remains weak, but the demand for services is strong, particularly where tourism is recovering.

The IMF did not indicate any changes to its April 2023 global GDP growth forecast of 2.8 per cent — down from 3.4 per cent in 2022 — but said that risks were “mostly” tilted to the downside. These include the potential for Russia’s war in Ukraine to intensify, stubborn inflation and more financial sector stress that could disrupt markets.

But the Fund said that inflation “seems to have peaked” in 2022, and core inflation, while also easing, remains above targets in most G20 countries.

Reduced supply chain disruptions and lower goods demand means likely disinflationary pressures from goods, the IMF said.
“However, services inflation — which is now the major driver of core inflation — is expected to take longer to decline,” the IMF said.

But it said that it was possible for inflation to fall faster than anticipated with resilient output and labour markets, with cooling demand translating into fewer job vacancies rather than higher unemployment.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told reporters that US data showing that June consumer prices registered their smallest annual increase in two years was a “very welcome” reduction in inflation momentum, but core inflation, particularly for services, was not yet on a downward trajectory.

Inflation fight

G20 policymakers should continue their fight against inflation, tightening monetary policy in many economies and maintaining real rates above neutral until “tangible signs of inflation returning to target emerge.”

But the IMF said policymakers will need to be vigilant for signs of financial sector stress, especially those brought about by interest rate risk and property sector stresses, and may need to deploy financial policy tools to contain them. It called for “granular stress tests” for financial firms.

G20 countries also need to tighten fiscal policy to ensure debt sustainability, create fiscal space and to help support disinflation by reducing aggregate demand, the Fund said.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an accompanying blog post that her “overriding priority” was to complete a review of the IMF’s quota resources that would increase their overall size, “with mindfulness of how the global economy has evolved”, a signal that major emerging markets like China should see increased shareholding.

The Fund last adjusted its shareholding in 2010, and is working to complete a review by December 15. Georgieva also said IMF members must fully replenish IMF trust funds that provide concessional resources for vulnerable countries.

Subsidy advice

The IMF also warned G20 countries about the dangers that industrial policy can have in creating distortions in trade and investment, citing China’s industrial subsidies and those for green energy investment in the United States and the European Union.

“Such policies create the risk of fragmentation of production and of triggering retaliatory responses by trading partners,” the IMF said. “These could also hamper technological diffusion, both between major technological hubs and to developing economies.

Instead, it called for G20 countries to “develop common perspectives on the appropriate use of subsidies,” adding that this can help improve outdated World Trade Organization rules and help avoid a fragmented global economy. — Reuters

Senior Fed Official Backs July Interest Rate Hike

A senior U.S. Federal Reserve official said yesterday he supported another interest rate hike later this month, and backed a second hike before the end of the year to keep tackling inflation.

After 10 consecutive increases, the Fed in June chose not to hike its benchmark lending rate, saying policymakers would use the time to assess the impact of raised rates on the US economy.

According to meeting notes released later, most members of the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated they expect two additional hikes will be needed this year to help keep inflation on a downward trajectory.

Yesterday evening, Fed governor and FOMC member Christopher Waller indicated he was one of them.

“I see two more 25-basis-point hikes in the target range over the four remaining meetings this year as necessary to keep inflation moving toward our target,” he told an audience in New York, according to prepared remarks.

Waller said he had backed last month’s pause due to “lingering doubts about when or if an abrupt tightening of credit conditions would occur,” following banking stresses in March.

“I felt that waiting another six weeks was prudent risk management,” he added.

Waller said data published since June has made him more confident that the banking crisis will not lead to “significant” problems for the American economy.

“I see no reason why the first of those two hikes should not occur at our meeting later this month,” he added.

Waller’s remarks come a day after the Fed published a report indicating that “overall economic activity increased slightly since late May.”

Futures traders assign a probability of more than 90 per cent that the Fed will raise its benchmark lending rate by another quarter percentage-point on July 25-26.

This would bring its key lending rate to its highest level in more than two decades. — AFP

Stock Picks Of The Day – YX Precious Metals, Agmo Holdings

YX Precious Metals is set for a positive rebound after it bounced off the 21-day SMA line, surpassing the MYR0.265 resistance level yesterday, on higher trading volume.

RHB Retail Research, in a note today (July 14), said bullish bias above the breakout level would see the counter travel towards MYR0.29, followed by the MYR0.335 resistance point.

Towards the downside, falling below the MYR0.25 support would indicate a reversal of the trend to a downtrend.

Agmo Holdings is set for a bullish reversal, as it rebounded above the 21-day SMA line and pushed above the MYR0.59 resistance level, with significant trading volume.

Riding the fresh “higher high” bullish pattern, the counter should test the next resistance points pegged at MYR0.635 (14 Jun’s high) and MYR0.68 (14 Apr’s high).

Conversely, falling below the MYR0.55 support would dent sentiment and lead it below the SMA line.

Hang Seng Index Futures: Bulls In Control

The HSIF underwent strong bullish pressure and pushed past the 19,250-pt resistance to close at 19,396 pts yesterday.

RHB Retail Research, in a note today (July 14), said it opened at 18,869 pts, trended upwards throughout the session and closed at the day’s high of 19,396 pts, thereby chairing a Bullish Marubozu candlestick.

In the evening, the index climbed 188 pts and last traded at 19,584 pts. The index has established its position above both 20-day and 50-day SMA lines.

The latest price action confirms that the bulls are in the driver’s seat now. The RSI indicator is curving higher, which implies that the positive momentum should lift the index further in the coming sessions.

Since the bullish setup is in place now, RHB now adopts a positive trading bias.

Traders should close out the short positions (initiated at 18,875 pts, ie the close of 23 Jun) as the stop-loss of 19,250 pts has been triggered.

Conversely, they can initiate long positions at the close of 13 Jul, ie 19,396 pts. To manage the trading risks, the initial stop-loss is set at 18,861 pts.

The immediate support has been revised to 18,861 pts (12 Jul’s close), followed by 18,000 pts. On the flip side, the immediate resistance is now at 19,500 pts, followed by 20,000 pts.