For those waiting for the COVID nightmare to be over soon, scientists tell us to be ready for more of what we have already been through, according to a Bloomberg news report.
The report says that the same round of lockdowns and surges in cases will appear again in waves of transmission that lead to new variants and the race for inoculations won’t be over until the coronavirus has touched all of us.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, says that he sees these continued surges occurring throughout the world, and then it will drop and then the world could see another surge happen, in a nonlinear fashion, showing more of an an ebb and flow in case surges, seemingly never-ending.
As economies are now reopening, in addition to there being little chance now of eliminating the virus, it can be expected that more outbreaks will happen in classrooms, public transport and workplaces along the coming months.
The report adds that even as immunization rates rise, there will always be people who are vulnerable to the virus such as new-born babies, people who can’t or won’t get vaccinated, and those who are vaccinated but suffer additional infections as their immunity levels fluctuate.
According to Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist and professor of population health sciences at Roskilde University in Denmark, it is possible that the virus known as SARS-CoV-2 won’t follow the path set by the pandemics of the past. After all, it is a different, novel and potentially more transmissible pathogen. With a death toll of more than 4.6 million people so far, it’s already more than twice as deadly as any outbreak since the 1918 Spanish flu.
Simonsen also adds that while the longest global flu outbreak lasted five years, it mostly consisted of two to four waves of infection over an average of two or three years. Covid is already shaping up to be among the more severe pandemics, as its second year concludes with the world in the middle of a third wave with no end in sight.
Some researchers say the virus is poised to become completely resistant to the first generation of vaccines. A study from Japan, which has yet to be published or reviewed, suggests that potentially dangerous mutations in the delta variant are already being picked up in a global database used to track such developments. Reports of current strains breaking through vaccinations or triggering higher fatality rates have not held up to rigorous scrutiny thus far.
Osterholm says that we have to approach this virus with our eyes wide open and with a great deal of humility. He adds anyone who thinks that this is going to be over in the next few days or a few months is sorely mistaken.
The Bloomberg report ends by reiterating that the future management of the pandemic is likely to be messy, leaving a lasting legacy for years to come. Until then, most of us will need to brace in the pandemic’s grip for many more months.
