As I said, many months ago, I have never seen a more problematic global economic matrix confronting the world in my now 38-year career.
As always, I could be wrong and no one is ever immune to getting it badly wrong. Though, what a fabulous year we have all had with our aggressively bearish view maintained even as the US market opened with fresh highs at the start of the year.
This, I see, is a major historic down period. Either 12-19 months or 3-6 years. You should continue to strategies and position for just such an environment.
What is different from the GFC experience is that it was a largely ‘financial market mathematical absurdity thinking large numbers of mortgages packaging represented low risk’ investment banker lead down-turn.
This time around it is a grassroots economic catastrophe that financial markets and Wall Street types have yet to fully understand or appreciate. Wall St is also missing the positioning point of the world having been caught long like never before in history and the subsequent ground swells of broad investor sentiment of wanting out are now headed their way.
This is why, despite momentary bouts of strength, the trend is likely to remain down.
Then we have the US Federal Reserve and others misreading the situation again and adding to the severe problems now facing consumers and businesses alike.
I use the word ‘diabolical’ to describe the economic outlook without exaggeration.
The major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan do not fully grasp it yet. This is our opportunity to get in and get ahead of them. As another grand wave of selling is already circling investment oceans and it is only a matter of time before it crashes on local market shores and floods inland.
Market insights and analysis from Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY Securities
