TIV came in at 65,499 units in Jan 2024 , eased MoM against a seasonally high base in Dec 2023, but remained on a growth trajectory YoY. With Jan 2024 TIV making up 9% full-year projection of 710k units, Kenanga said it considers the number meeting expectation. Looking ahead, the house believes Feb 2024 TIV may hit a speed bump due to the Chinese New Year break.
Overall, passenger vehicles segment was weaker MoM against a high base in December 2023 due to the usual bumper year-end sales. Only Proton and Nissan managed to sustain its sales on continuous promotion on its vehicle’s offerings. Proton’s sales were mainly driven by the all-new X70, X50 and X90, and supported by the all-new S70, as well as face-lifted Persona, Iriz, Exora and Saga. Nissan managed to entice buyers as evidenced by its fast-moving inventory, but overall is still losing out in the all new vehicles race.
Perodua’s sales continued to be propelled by the all-new Perodua Alza and all-new Perodua Axia, with equally strong sales of the Bezza, MyVi, Ativa models. Based on sales projection, Perodua currently has more than 120k backlogged orders. Honda shone with it all-new Honda WR-V coupled with “Sale on Sale” year-end promotional campaign targeting small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) employees. Toyota’s sales were driven by its popular top models, namely the all-new Vios, Yaris, Corolla Cross and Hilux. Based on sales projection, Toyota currently has 20k backlogged orders.
For CY24, Kenanga projects a TIV of 710k units which is closely in line with the 740k units projected by Malaysia Automotive Association. The industry’s earnings visibility is still strong, backed by a booking backlog of 200k units as at end-Jan 2024, unchanged compared to a month ago. More than half of the backlog is made up of new models, alluding to how appealing new models are to car buyers. The house expects a similar trend in CY24, given an equally strong line-up of new launches during the year. Meanwhile, excitement is building in the electric vehicle segment with the new launches of BYD Seal and Tesla Model 3 with expected introduction of locally-made first national EV (i.e. Perodua and Proton) in CY25.
The house believes a new car is still an affordable luxury for most Malaysian households despite the high inflation and a slowing global economy underpinned by strong consumer confidence supported by a stable economy and a healthy job market, the affordability of motor vehicle underpinned by stable new car prices thanks to the deferment of new excise duty regulations (that could have resulted in prices of locally assembled vehicles increasing by 8%−20%) and potentially cheaper hire purchase cost with the introduction of the reducing balance method in the calculation of interest charges, and attractive new models.
However, Kenanga said it acknowledges that the impending fuel subsidy rationalisation is likely to hurt the demand for mid-market models, while remaining optimistic on vehicle sales in the affordable segment as the buyers, i.e. the B40 group which is its main target market, will be spared the impact of subsidy rationalisation, and also could potentially benefit from the introduction of the progressive wage model
Additionally, vehicle sales will be supported by new BEVs that enjoy SST exemption and other EV facilities incentives up to CY25 for CBU and CY27 for CKD. BEV new registrations had leapt significantly for the past two years (from 274 units in CY21 to over 3,400 units in CY22 and 10,159 units in CY23) and is on track to meet national target for EVs and hybrid vehicles which are 15% of total industry volume (TIV) by CY30, and 38% of TIV by CY40.
Meanwhile, the government’s pledge to enable charge point operators (CPOs) to secure faster approvals for installation provides comfort as currently only 1,434 EV charging stations have been built to-date
