On 7 Mar 2024, Genting Berhad’s 20%-owned TauRx will present full results from its Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial of HMTM that is designed to combat Alzheimer’s disease. It has initiated regulatory engagement in the United Kingdom and the United States for product approval.
Under a ‘blue sky’ scenario where HMTM is approved and TauRx is valued at USD15b with no discount ascribed to it, Maybank IB says GENT TP could be raised to MYR9.40. As for now the house estimates MYR5.73 TP unchanged but encourages investors to BUY now to position ahead.
TauRx Pharmaceuticals (Not Listed) will present the 24-month data from its Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial of hydromethylthionine mesylate (HMTM) at the upcoming AD/PD 2024 Alzheimer’s & Parkinson’s Diseases Conference on 7 Mar 2024 at 13:50 Central European Time (20:50 Malaysian time), in Lisbon, Portugal. TauRx had reported initial results of its Phase III LUCIDITY trial throughout 2022 but the upcoming presentation will include details of the final 12-month open label phase of the trial.
Recap of initial Phase 3 trial results
Maybank IB wrote extensively on TauRx throughout 2022, the Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial was invalidated because as the placebo had medical benefits, one could not gauge the difference in benefits HMTM had over placebo. However, TauRx stated that HMTM:- (i) is effective – HMTM slowed cognitive and functional decline and reduced brain atrophy; (ii) is safe – does not cause brain bleeding; and (iii) will be a lot cheaper than its competitors, if approved – consumed orally vs. intravenously.
Risk-reward profile heavily in favour of reward
TauRx has initiated regulatory engagement in the United Kingdom (Medicines & Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) and United States (Food & Drug Administration) for product approval. Maybank IB ascribed USD1.0b valuation to TauRx. After ascribing 60% discount to SOP, TauRx accounts for only 9sen out of our MYR5.73 GENT TP.
