Maybank IB say it views GOTO’s FY23 results as positive with revenue in line with forecast, and adjusted EBITDA beat. GOTO achieved its 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA target (4Q23: IDR72b, FY23 -IDR3.7t).
The house maintains its buy call and target price of IDR110 with downside risk being slower revenue growth, poorer –
than-expected performance in on demand services (ODS) and fintech businesses amid TikTok’s rapid expansion in
GOTO posted an FY23 net loss of IDR90.4t, mainly due to IDR70.8t goodwill write-off at Tokopedia (one time). Excluding this, core net loss -IDR9.8t (vs. IDR11.5t loss in FY23E). FY23 EBITDA loss of IDR3.7t was narrower than forecast IDR6t loss, mainly due to operational efficiency as costs fell to IDR25t (-40% YoY, 94% of forecast). Group GTV fell 1.1% to
IDR606t (97% of forecast) but gross take rate rose to 4.0% in FY23E (vs. 3.7% in FY22) and net take rate rose from 1.9% in FY22 to 2.4% in FY23.
Expect losses to narrow in FY24E
GOTO will no longer consolidate Tokopedia in FY24E. Maybank IB thinks it’s a catalyst for GOTO, as management can focus on Fintech (GoPay) and support the expansion of ODS (Go-Jek). The house also thinks GOTO’s net loss will narrow to -IDR1.45t in FY24E, mainly as it expects further cost efficiency.
Meanwhile, the house is positive about the deal with TikTok due to: 1) non diluted 24.99% share in Tokopedia; and 2) revenue from e-services fees, which it estimated at IDR988b for FY24E.
Maybank IB derived its value of IDR115t for FY25E based on our SOTP valuation methodology, which translates to a TP of IDR110. It values Tokopedia at IDR41t, based on the present value of the service fee. The target price implies 9.3x P/S and 3.1x P/BV for FY24E. It said it likes GOTO for its growth story and ranking among Indonesia’s top two ODS.
