China’s exports soared 12.4% in March, more than double the 4.6% forecast in a Bloomberg survey, as businesses scrambled to ship goods ahead of a new wave of US tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.
Tit-for-tat trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have deepened, with US levies on Chinese goods rising to 145%, while Beijing imposed retaliatory duties of 125% on US imports. Analysts say the March export spike reflected urgent frontloading to beat Trump’s 2 April “Liberation Day” tariffs.
“The strong export data reflect frontloading of trade before the US tariffs were announced,” said Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “China’s exports will likely weaken in coming months as the US tariffs skyrocket.”
Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, noted that “in anticipation of even higher duties, demand from US importers continued to hold up fairly well”, but warned that “shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters.” He added, “It could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”
Imports in March fell 4.3%, a smaller decline compared to earlier in the year, indicating signs of recovery in domestic consumption. Despite ongoing economic challenges, China’s exports to the US still rose about 9% year-on-year last month, even as a second round of tariffs took effect.
From January to March, the US remained China’s largest single export destination, with shipments totalling US$115.6 billion, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
Beijing is navigating a fragile recovery amid sluggish consumption and a prolonged debt crisis in the property sector. While authorities announced sweeping measures last year—including rate cuts, relaxed homebuying restrictions, and increased support for markets—investor optimism has faded due to a lack of concrete stimulus details.
On Friday, the US announced temporary exemptions for electronic goods such as smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors—key export items for China—offering brief respite to the semiconductor industry.
China has set a 5% growth target for the year, with leaders vowing to make domestic demand the engine of the economy. However, analysts warn that the “uncertainty of trade policies is extremely high”, adding further strain to a still-fragile recovery.
