Singapore’s economy grew 2.9% in the third quarter of 2025, down from a revised 4.5% expansion in Q2, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) released on Tuesday (Oct 14).
The growth beat economists’ expectations of 2% in a Bloomberg poll, though on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, expansion eased to 1.3%, slightly below the 1.5% growth recorded in Q2.
MTI noted that advance GDP estimates are calculated mainly from the first two months of the quarter and are subject to revision. In August, the ministry had upgraded Singapore’s full-year GDP forecast to 1.5%–2.5%, from an earlier estimate of 0%–2%, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance.
Sectoral Performance Shows Mixed Signals
Manufacturing avoided contraction but recorded zero growth, compared with a 5% expansion in Q2, marking the weakest performance since Q2 2024. MTI said declines in biomedical and general manufacturing were partly offset by gains in other clusters. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, manufacturing rose 6.1%, a turnaround from a 0.7% contraction in Q2.
Construction grew 3.1% year-on-year, down from 6.2% in Q2, supported by both public and private sector activity. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector fell 1.2%, reversing the 6.5% gain in Q2.
Services sectors showed varied outcomes. Wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage collectively rose 2.5% year-on-year, down from 4.9% previously, while on a quarter-on-quarter basis they contracted 1.2%, a pullback from Q2’s 2.8% growth. Growth was driven by machinery, equipment and supplies in wholesale trade, and water and air transport.
Meanwhile, information and communications, finance and insurance, and professional services sectors expanded 4.4%, slightly above Q2’s 4.3%. Growth in IT, professional services head offices, and banking activities underpinned this performance, although quarter-on-quarter expansion slowed to 1.3% from 1.6% in Q2.
The remaining services sectors, including accommodation, real estate and administrative services, grew 4.1% year-on-year, led by accommodation benefiting from rising international visitor arrivals. Quarter-on-quarter, these sectors maintained 1.3% growth.
Economists See Resilience Amid Global Headwinds
OCBC economist Selena Ling noted that US tariff pressures were less severe than anticipated, pointing to resilient trade and front-loading effects earlier in the year. She expects Singapore’s economy to grow about 3% for 2025, even if Q4 moderates below 1% year-on-year.
Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin expressed a more optimistic outlook, projecting GDP closer to 3.5%, above his previous forecast of 3.2% for the year.
CNA
