Malaysia’s exports recorded their strongest annual growth since September 2022, rising 19.6% year-on-year (yoy) in January 2026 to lift total trade by 12.6% yoy to RM272.4 billion.
The export growth beat market expectations of 14.3% and marked a sharp acceleration from December 2025’s 10.2% increase. Imports rose at a slower pace of 5.3% yoy, below consensus estimates of 10.0% and easing from December’s 9.5%.
On a month-on-month basis, however, exports and imports declined 3.9% and 4.0% respectively, resulting in a slightly narrower trade surplus of RM21.4 billion in January compared with RM22.1 billion in December. The surplus was significantly higher than RM3.7 billion recorded in January 2025.
CIMB, in its research note, said export outperformance continued to be heavily anchored by the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector, which expanded 39.5% yoy in January (December: 25.0%) to RM70.5 billion.
E&E products now account for 48.0% of total exports, underscoring the sector’s dominant role in the current trade upcycle.
The strong performance was closely linked to robust demand from the United States, where Malaysia’s exports rose 33.9% yoy to RM23.1 billion. The increase was largely driven by E&E exports, which surged 47.5% yoy, as well as optical and scientific equipment, which grew 47.0% yoy.
Non-E&E manufacturing exports also showed improvement, rising 6.1% yoy compared with 1.8% in December. This segment contributed 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth in January.
In contrast, the commodity sector continued to face headwinds from lower average unit values (AUVs).
Agriculture exports declined 2.7% yoy, dragged by palm oil and palm-based products, which fell 2.9% yoy. Although palm oil export volumes rose 20.6% yoy, this was offset by an 18.2% drop in AUVs.
Mining exports were also negatively impacted, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude petroleum exports plunging 5.2% and 39.0% yoy respectively, primarily due to weaker prices.
On the import side, CIMB highlighted diverging trends in domestic economic activity.
Imports of consumption goods grew 16.7% yoy, albeit moderating from 27.6% in December, supported by both durable and non-durable goods. This suggests sustained private consumption and household spending power.
However, imports of capital goods contracted more sharply by 20.7% yoy (December: -11.8%), while intermediate goods imports turned negative at -5.1% yoy, compared with 3.6% growth previously.
While capital goods imports tend to be volatile, CIMB noted that the second consecutive month of contraction could signal a temporary slowdown in investment realisation following strong activity in late 2025. The trend warrants closer monitoring in the months ahead.
CIMB said January’s strong trade performance provides a positive start to the current account balance for the first quarter of 2026.
The sustained upcycle in the E&E sector is expected to help cushion the economy against commodity price volatility, while non-E&E manufacturing exports remain resilient. Domestic exports rebounded strongly with 11.3% yoy growth, although re-exports continued to dominate overall expansion.
Nevertheless, the softness in intermediate and capital goods imports suggests that while external demand remains robust, domestic production inputs may moderate in the near term.
CIMB maintained its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 4.5%, pending clearer post-festive economic signals.
