Maybank Investment Banking Group (IBG) has upgraded SKY ICT Public Company Limited (SKY) to a “BUY” rating, following a robust fourth-quarter performance and a strategic political shift that promises a surge in government project wins for late 2026.
The upgrade comes after SKY’s share price dipped 12% on March 2, which analysts view as an attractive entry point given the company’s strengthening fundamentals and a clearer political outlook in Thailand.
SKY’s core profit for the final quarter of 2025 hit THB 157 million, up 33% year-on-year. This figure outperformed Maybank’s forecasts by 25%, driven by two primary factors:
Strong Margins: Gross margins reached 16.5%, significantly higher than the projected 14.8%.
Aviation Boost: Equity income from AOTGA (AOT Ground Aviation Services) contributed a healthy THB 65 million, fueled by the recovery in international passenger traffic.
Political Stability as a Catalyst
A major driver for the upgrade is the expectation of a stable government under a Bhumjaithai (BJT)-led coalition following Thailand’s general elections.
Revenue Surge: Maybank anticipates quarterly System Integration (SI) revenue to climb from roughly THB 500 million in early 2026 to as high as THB 1.0 billion in the second half of the year.
May Re-rating: The formal government formation in May 2026 is expected to unlock a backlog of large-scale public sector IT projects that were previously on hold.
Conservative Forecasting Amid Global Risks
While optimistic, analysts have adjusted their models to account for external volatility. The FY26 tourist arrival estimate has been set at 35 million, slightly lower than the initial house view of 35.5 million. This “cautious cushion” factors in potential disruptions to travel should Middle East tensions escalate.
Despite this, SKY’s target price has been raised to THB 16.20 (up from THB 14.50), with earnings growth expected to accelerate to 16% in FY27 as new project wins begin to materialise.
