The global outlook for electric vehicle demand has been cut for a second year in a row, with policy shifts in the United States driving a significant downgrade to long-term expectations, according to BloombergNEF.
The latest forecast points to a slower pace of electrification across major automotive markets, even as overall adoption continues to rise. BloombergNEF has revised its projections downward after changes in US policy reduced support for EV uptake, including weaker emissions standards and the removal of key incentives that previously supported demand growth.
In the United States, the impact is most pronounced. EV sales are now expected to account for just 17% of passenger vehicle sales by 2030, down sharply from 27% in last year’s forecast and far below earlier expectations of 48%. The revision reflects a cumulative loss of around 14 million EV sales through 2030 compared with previous projections, highlighting how quickly policy changes are reshaping the market outlook.
Several policy adjustments are behind the slowdown. The $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers has expired, fuel economy standards have been eased, and efforts to limit California’s ability to set its own emissions rules are adding further uncertainty. Taken together, these changes reduce the regulatory push that had previously accelerated adoption.
As a result, growth in the US EV market is expected to remain relatively modest through the end of the decade. EVs are now projected to reach just 11% of US sales by 2029, compared with earlier, higher forecasts. Battery-electric vehicles are still expected to grow over the long term, but parity with conventional cars has been pushed further out, now anticipated around 2039.
The weaker US outlook is also affecting global battery demand. BloombergNEF has cut its projections for battery consumption between 2025 and 2035 by around 8%, equal to roughly 3.4 terawatt-hours. The decline is largely driven by reduced EV sales expectations in the US, where demand is now forecast to be significantly lower than previously estimated. This is contributing to oversupply in the battery sector, with utilisation rates at some Chinese plants reportedly falling below 50%.
While the US is pulling back, China continues to support EV expansion, albeit at a more mature stage of growth. The market remains the global leader in both production and adoption, and is helping offset some of the slowdown elsewhere. However, the pace of growth is no longer as rapid as in earlier phases of the transition.
Despite weaker long-term forecasts, near-term momentum is still strong. Global EV sales are expected to reach around 22 million units in 2025, marking a rise of roughly 25% on the previous year. Plug-in vehicles are on track to account for about one in four new cars sold worldwide, showing that electrification is still advancing, even if the pace is becoming more uneven across regions.
