The outcome of the Negeri Sembilan state election remains too close to call, with voter turnout and undecided voters expected to determine which coalition forms the next state government, according to the latest political assessment by the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs .Research Centre.
In a media statement released ahead of polling day on Saturday, IDE said no political bloc currently enjoys a comfortable path to securing control of the 36-seat Negeri Sembilan State Legislative Assembly, despite the PH-BN coalition’s commanding victory in the 2023 state election.
The think tank said the contest remains highly competitive, with several marginal seats expected to determine the final outcome.
Turnout expected at around 68% to 70%
IDE’s survey found that 62.3% of voters said they were certain to cast their ballots, while another 24% indicated they were likely to vote.
However, the actual turnout will depend on several factors, including party mobilisation efforts, weather conditions, transportation and developments during the final stages of campaigning.
Based on these factors, IDE estimated voter turnout could reach between 68% and 70%.
The institute noted that turnout among different demographic groups could significantly influence the results, particularly in closely contested constituencies.
Young voters remain the biggest mobilisation challenge
The survey found that young voters aged between 18 and 30 recorded the lowest certainty of voting, with only 51.8% saying they would definitely cast their ballots.
This compares with 67.4% among voters aged 31 to 60 and 63.4% among those aged 61 and above.
IDE said lower participation among younger voters could prove decisive in several constituencies where winning margins are expected to be narrow.
Non-Malay turnout could influence mixed constituencies
The report also highlighted differences in turnout intentions across ethnic groups.
Malay voters recorded the highest commitment to voting, with 66.7% saying they were certain to vote, compared with 56.1% of Chinese voters and 56.6% of Indian voters.
IDE said these differences could have a significant impact on the outcome in urban, semi-urban and mixed constituencies.
Up to 18% of voters still undecided
Despite campaigning entering its final stages, IDE estimated that between 12% and 18% of voters remain undecided, making them a critical voting bloc.
The institute said these fence-sitters are likely to be influenced by factors such as candidate credibility, local issues, cost of living concerns, government performance and last-minute campaign developments.
Its findings also showed that while 63.4% of voters had already made up their minds, 33.8% only decided after nomination day or later, including 14.8% who typically finalise their choice on polling day itself.
Eight marginal seats expected to decide government
IDE said overall popular vote figures may not accurately reflect the eventual distribution of seats.
Instead, constituency-level factors—including ethnic composition, candidate strength, voter turnout and campaign machinery—are expected to play a more decisive role.
The institute identified eight marginal constituencies where shifts of only a few hundred votes or small changes in turnout could alter the balance of power and determine which coalition forms the next state government.
The report described the main contest as being between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN), while the presence of Perikatan Nasional (PN) and BERSATU could split votes in several constituencies.
Campaign narratives shaping final voter perceptions
IDE said focus group discussions found that issues relating to race, religion and royalty (3R), national unity, misinformation and false narratives continue to shape public discourse during the campaign.
The institute also observed that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s campaigning had increased public interest in the election, particularly among undecided voters seeking further information before making their final choice.
Among Chinese voters, the report found that anti-DAP narratives were perceived by some respondents as becoming increasingly linked to issues of identity and citizenship, potentially influencing political solidarity and voter turnout.
Meanwhile, the Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) findings on Tabung Haji were identified as a late campaign issue that could influence Malay-Muslim voters, particularly those still undecided, by raising questions surrounding governance, accountability and institutional trust.
Aminuddin enjoys positive leadership perception
IDE’s survey and focus group discussions also found that Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun continued to enjoy favourable public perceptions.
According to the findings, respondents most frequently associated Aminuddin with being people-oriented, having a good administrative track record, and being free from corruption and abuse of power, with each of these attributes receiving positive ratings exceeding 40%.
The institute said these leadership perceptions could provide an advantage for the incumbent coalition if they translate into stronger voter confidence and turnout on polling day.
