Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expanded further — by 12.2% in the third quarter of 2022 (Q3 2022) from 8.9% in Q2, according to AmBank Group.
The banking group also expects the full-year GDP growth to match its earlier forecast of 7.5% (base case), with an upside of 8.5%, backed by the latest industrial production (IP) numbers that have continued to grow by double digits, as well as strong exports and private consumption.
“For October, we may see softer manufacturing activities, taking the cue from the deeper contractions in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing as well as higher base effects,” said group chief economist and head of research Anthony Dass.
He noted that the headline reading fell to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in the previous month due to a slump in global market conditions and muted customer demand.
Looking at the sub-segments within the manufacturing sector, he said the production of transport equipment and other manufactures grew by 21.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) versus 55.2% y-o-y in August 2022, while wood, furniture, paper products and printing grew by 8.7% y-o-y (August 2022: 16.6% y-o-y).
Electrical & electronics (E&E) continued its double-digit growth at 15.5% y-o-y (August 2022: 19.6% y-o-y).
Dass said looking at it on a month-on-month basis, the production of this commodity increased by 2.4%, a slower pace relative to the previous month’s growth of 6.0%.
“However, global semiconductor purchases have contracted since July this year, reflecting the end of the tech cycle.
“Still, we expect global semiconductor sales to grow by 14.0% in 2022, and 5.0% in 2023,” he said.
Malaysia’s IP in September expanded by 10.8% y-o-y, which was at a slower pace relative to the previous month’s 13.5%.
This brings the year-to-date growth for IP to 7.9% compared with 8.8% in 2021.
