The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 4.2 percent in 2024 in its latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO).
Continued recovery in external trade and tourism, alongside resilient domestic demand, will remain the key drivers of growth.
The region’s growth to strengthen to 4.4 percent in 2025, aligning with expectations of stable external demand and strong domestic demand.
The latest 2024 forecast for the ASEAN+3 region represents a slight downward revision from the July 2024 forecast of 4.4 percent, primarily due to adjustment for China and Vietnam.
The Plus-3 economies (China including Hong Kong, Japan and Korea) are projected to grow at 4.1 percent, while ASEAN is expected to expand by 4.7 percent in 2024.
“Recent developments have shifted the risk landscape for the ASEAN+3 region,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. “The sharp but short-lived market adjustment that we witnessed in early August is a reminder of the risk of further spikes in financial market volatility. The potential escalation of protectionist policies following the US presidential election is another key risk for the region.”
Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—is forecast to moderate to 1.9 percent in 2024, slightly lower than the July forecast of 2.1 percent.
Overall, inflationary pressure remains well contained in the region, in line with the expectation of easing global inflation.
Recent US economic indicators have sparked some concerns for the region. Weakness in the US labor market and purchasing managers index (PMI) figures have raised fears of an economic slowdown, potentially impacting regional exports. The November election outcome could also significantly affect the region’s economic outlook.
