Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Vietnam’s retail sector heading into 2026, citing strong corporate earnings momentum, favourable long-term prospects and emerging market re-rating catalysts. Despite year-to-date share price underperformance, the sector is viewed as offering compelling entry opportunities in high-quality names.
The report identifies MWG and MSN as top picks, supported by their market-leading positions and valuation upside. PNJ and DGW also remain rated BUY.
Consumption Recovery Strengthening
Vietnam’s retail sales rose 9.3% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025 in nominal terms, and 7.0% in real terms, extending a steady post-pandemic recovery. However, consumption has yet to return to the pre-COVID expansion pace of 11–12%, with weak consumer sentiment still acting as a drag.
Analysts expect sentiment to improve and consumption growth to strengthen in 2026, supported by:
- Improving macro conditions, including easing tariff risks and faster GDP growth;
- Continued government stimulus to bolster domestic demand;
- Better employment conditions and fewer policy headwinds for household businesses;
- A stronger wealth effect as financial conditions stabilise.
Vietnam’s ambitious 2026–2030 GDP growth target of 10% annually is expected to drive further demand-side policy support, positioning consumption as a central engine of economic expansion.
Corporate Earnings Momentum to Remain Robust
Vietnam’s listed retail companies delivered another strong performance in 3Q25, with sector-wide NPAT-MI surging 96% year-on-year, following robust growth in 1Q (+53%) and 2Q (+51%). The gains were supported by rising consumption, expanding market share in modern retail, and increased operating leverage.
The report notes that 9M25 results reaffirm the sector’s earnings resilience, with all major players outperforming despite only gradual improvements in consumer demand.
Sector earnings are forecast to grow 55% in FY25E and 26% in FY26E, driven by improving consumption and structural reforms that are tightening oversight of the informal retail segment. MWG and MSN are expected to remain the sector’s primary earnings engines.
Regulatory Reforms Reshaping the Retail Landscape
Vietnam’s ongoing regulatory tightening is transforming the retail industry, creating long-term structural advantages for compliant, large-scale operators. Key reforms include:
- A crackdown on informal retail channels and counterfeit goods;
- Stricter tax compliance rules, digital invoicing and e-record requirements;
- Government initiatives promoting e-commerce, modern trade and transparent supply chains.
These measures accelerate market formalisation, benefiting established and compliant players such as MWG, MSN, PNJ and FRT, which possess strong scale, trusted brands, and robust supply-chain governance.
Re-Rating Catalysts Ahead
The anticipated upgrade of Vietnam to Emerging Market status is expected to act as a major catalyst for sector revaluation in 2026, alongside continued earnings outperformance.
“Despite near-term price weakness, the sector’s fundamentals remain firmly intact, and valuations present attractive upside,” the report noted.
