Malaysia’s economy is projected to expand by 4%-5% in 2026, outpacing global growth as artificial intelligence (AI) investments, stronger semiconductor exports and easier monetary policy help buffer the country against an increasingly fragile global backdrop, according to ACCA’s latest Global Economic Outlook.
The report forecasts global GDP growth of around 3%, broadly matching 2025’s surprisingly resilient performance despite trade disruptions and policy uncertainty.
While the global economy remains “solid but not exciting”, ACCA warns that downside risks from trade tensions to bond market volatility remain firmly skewed to the downside.
Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Ken Rogoff, interviewed for the report, cautioned that the scale of uncertainty is not fully priced into financial markets, flagging the risk of a significant stock market correction over the next three years even as markets may continue rising in the near term.
“Against this backdrop, Malaysia is expected to mirror global resilience while remaining exposed to external shocks,” ACCA said.
ACCA added that Malaysia’s growth outlook is underpinned by its push into AI and the digital economy, including large-scale data centre investments such as Microsoft’s US$2.2 billion AI hub developments in Kuala Lumpur and Johor, alongside export diversification led by semiconductors.
Meanwhile, ACCA’s chief economist Jonathan Ashworth noted that looser monetary policy, fiscal easing in key economies and the ongoing AI boom should support steady global expansion in 2026, though geopolitical uncertainty, renewed trade tensions and concerns over central bank independence continue to cloud the outlook.
For Malaysia, ACCA highlighted risks stemming from higher US tariffs, geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and rising global bond yields, which could weigh on capital flows and financing costs.
Andrew Lim, Portfolio Head for Maritime Southeast Asia at ACCA, said Malaysia remains well-positioned if it executes decisively.
“Malaysia stands resilient in ACCA’s 2026 outlook, leveraging its AI and digital economy push to navigate global fragility,” he said, adding that finance leaders must prioritise cybersecurity, green transitions and agile trade strategies to turn volatility into opportunity.
Overall, ACCA said Malaysia’s projected 4%-5% growth reflects a balance of strong domestic tailwinds and mounting global headwinds resilient, but not immune.
