The prospect of stronger cooperation between the US and China following US President Donald Trump’s latest state visit to China may create fresh economic and geopolitical challenges for ASEAN economies that are already grappling with fallout from the Middle East conflict.
According to Monash University Malaysia School of Business lecturer Dr Javed Kamal, Trump’s May 13-15 visit carries significant implications for ASEAN as Washington and Beijing explore deeper cooperation in trade, technology, energy security and investment.
He shared with BusinessToday that US-China ties remain the world’s most intense bilateral relationship, historically revolving around trade, energy, artificial intelligence (AI), technology access and Taiwan-related tensions.
“Any bilateral cooperation would unsettle regional trade relationships,” he said.
According to Kamal, Trump entered the visit with several strategic priorities, including pushing China to increase imports of US goods and services, alongside securing more Chinese investments into the American economy.
“The presence of delegates from major US corporations signalled that high-level commercial negotiations were a key focus of the trip,” he said.
He added that discussions surrounding AI and rare earth minerals, an area where China dominates global supply, were also feature prominently, alongside sensitive talks involving Taiwan and Beijing’s potential support relating to the ongoing Iran conflict.
The visit, the first by a US leader to China in nearly a decade, comes as the US-Iran war continues to disrupt global supply chains, particularly after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil shipping route for China and other Asian economies.
Kamal warned that ASEAN economies are already under pressure from rising oil prices, fertiliser shortages and broader supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis, forcing regional economies to diversify their sources of energy and critical materials.
“In such a situation, an amicable US-China relationship affects trade, energy, technology, rare-earth mineral supplies and other areas for ASEAN economies,” he said.
While improved relations between the world’s two largest economies may appear positive globally, Kamal argued that ASEAN countries fear being sidelined economically when Washington and Beijing align more closely.
“Overall, ASEAN economies fear recessions when two rivals play a game of friendship,” he said.
He stressed that ASEAN nations should strengthen intra-regional economic, financial and defence cooperation to cushion against external shocks and preserve regional resilience amid shifting global power dynamics.
