Malaysia’s Economic Growth Momentum To Strengthen In 2H, Kenanga

The country’s distributive trade sector recorded a strong rebound in April 2026, with sales value rising 15.3% year-on-year (YoY) to RM174.9 billion, marking the fastest growth pace in 43 months.

According to a report by Kenanga Research, the stronger performance was driven mainly by wholesale stockpiling activities, a recovery in motor vehicle sales and a favourable low base effect. The latest growth accelerated from the 9.8% YoY expansion recorded in March 2026.

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, growth moderated to 3.5% in April from 8.1% in March but remained significantly above the 2025 monthly average growth of 0.6%. The sector’s sales value also reached a new record high during the month.

Kenanga said the wholesale trade and motor vehicle segments were the key contributors to growth, offsetting softer retail trade performance.

The motor vehicle segment rebounded strongly by 15.5% YoY in April, compared with a 3.1% contraction in March, marking its strongest performance in three months. The recovery was supported by higher vehicle sales, with total car sales reaching 72,100 units compared with 61,800 units a year earlier.

Sales of motor vehicles expanded 18.1%, while sales, maintenance and repair of motorcycles surged 38.7%, supporting overall segment growth. On a monthly basis, growth eased slightly to 9.2% from 11.6% in March but remained positive.

Meanwhile, wholesale trade recorded its strongest growth in five years, expanding 24.1% YoY compared with 15.7% in March.

The improvement was driven largely by the other specialised wholesale segment, which jumped 52.0% — the strongest since May 2021 — due to higher sales value from petroleum products including petrol, diesel and lubricants amid elevated global crude oil prices.

However, monthly growth in wholesale trade slowed to 6.6% from 12.7% in March.

The retail trade segment recorded a more moderate expansion of 6.3% YoY in April compared with 7.5% in March. The slower pace was mainly due to softer growth in non-specialised stores, which eased to 6.1% from 8.1%.

This was partly offset by stronger sales of automotive fuel in specialised stores, which increased 12.5% during the month.

Kenanga noted that Malaysia’s year-to-date distributive trade growth accelerated to 9.4% in April, compared with 7.5% in January to March 2026, supported by wholesale stockpiling, higher petroleum-related prices, improved motor vehicle demand and base effects.

However, the research house cautioned that the strong momentum could be temporary as consumer spending may normalise following earlier festive-driven demand.

“Elevated energy prices, persistent geopolitical tensions and prolonged supply chain disruptions could weigh on consumption and business activity in the second half of 2026,” Kenanga said.

Despite the strong April performance, Kenanga maintained its 2026 distributive trade growth forecast at 6.1%, compared with 5.6% in 2025.

The research house expects Malaysia’s economic growth momentum to strengthen in the second quarter of 2026, supported by resilient domestic activity, stronger industrial production and improved distributive trade performance.

However, growth could slow in the second half of the year if geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains.

Kenanga maintained its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 4.5%, compared with 5.2% in 2025, citing a cautiously optimistic outlook amid external uncertainties.

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