Barisan Nasional (BN) enters the upcoming Johor state election from a position of strength, with political analysts viewing the contest as a key test of momentum ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).
GeoStrategist and Fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Dr Azmi Hassan said BN is likely to dominate the contest against Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), citing the coalition’s stable internal structure and incumbency advantage in the southern state.
“The Johor result could become a catalyst for BN ahead of elections in states such as Negeri Sembilan, Melaka, Pahang and Perak. More importantly, it could help build momentum heading into GE16,” he said.
Azmi said PH’s benchmark for success would be to increase its seat tally, while PN could struggle to retain some of its incumbent seats. He also expects MUDA to face difficulties defending its existing seats.
According to him, BN’s strength lies in its relatively united grassroots machinery and the absence of major internal disputes, unlike some of its rivals.
He also dismissed suggestions that the Johor election should be viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, arguing that local issues would dominate the campaign.
“I do not regard the Johor state election as a referendum on Anwar Ibrahim. The campaign will revolve around local issues,” he said.
Azmi expects voters to focus on the cost of living, economic management and development, while BN is likely to highlight the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) as a major economic initiative.
Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia similarly expects a highly competitive race, with all major coalitions likely to contest independently.
“Everyone is going all out to set the tone because it will really set the stage for the upcoming general election,” she said.
While Syaza believes BN remains the frontrunner to retain Johor, she said the election could provide important clues on voter sentiment heading into GE16.
A strong performance by PN, she said, would suggest that support among Malay voters remains resilient despite speculation that the so-called “green wave” has begun to fade.
“If PN performs strongly, it would indicate that the shift of Malay voters towards PN has not reached its limit and that there is still room for growth,” she said.
Syaza added that although support for PH could partly reflect public sentiment towards the federal government, state elections are ultimately driven by local concerns such as governance, development, stability and public welfare.
Looking beyond polling day, both analysts said the election could influence future political alignments, particularly if no coalition secures a clear majority.
Azmi said a strong showing by PN would reinforce the importance of cooperation between BN and PH, while Syaza noted that BN could once again emerge as a kingmaker in determining the formation of the next state government.
