Brazil may be the favourites on paper when they face Japan in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 at 1am Malaysian time on Tuesday, but this is one of those knockout ties where reputation may not tell the full story.
Our writers, Rizal and Adrian, see the match very differently.
Rizal: Brazil have too many match winners
For Rizal, Brazil have quietly become one of the tournament’s strongest sides after a slow start.
“They’ve evolved since that draw against Morocco,” he says. “Carlo Ancelotti has stopped forcing everything through the middle. Brazil are now stretching teams wide, creating isolation for Vinicius Junior and allowing Matheus Cunha and Lucas Paquetá to attack the spaces that open up.”
Rizal believes possession will overwhelmingly belong to Brazil, predicting they will control around 60 to 65% of the ball, but warns that doesn’t necessarily mean an easy evening.
“Japan are probably the most tactically disciplined team left in the competition. They’ll happily defend deep for long periods before exploding forward on the counter. Brazil may dominate possession but Japan could still produce some of the better transition chances.”
The battle on Brazil’s left flank is where Rizal believes the game could be won.
“Vinicius against Japan’s right side will be relentless. If they double up on him, Cunha gets more room centrally. If they leave him isolated, Vinicius only needs one moment.”
His Brazil players to watch are Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha.
“Vinicius has scored in every group match and looks unstoppable whenever he gets defenders one-on-one. Cunha has become the perfect striker for Ancelotti because he doesn’t just score. His movement creates space for everyone else.”
For Japan, Rizal highlights Daizen Maeda and goalkeeper Zion Suzuki.
“Maeda’s pace behind Brazil’s defence is probably Japan’s biggest weapon, while Suzuki has arguably been one of the best goalkeepers of the tournament. Brazil will create chances, so Suzuki will almost certainly have work to do.”
Rizal also believes Japan’s 3-2 win over Brazil in last year’s friendly should not be overplayed.
“Brazil will remember it, but this is a completely different side defensively under Ancelotti. They’re much more organised now.”
Rizal’s verdict: Brazil 2-1 Japan
“Japan will stay in the game throughout and probably score, but Brazil simply have more players capable of deciding knockout matches.”
Adrian: Japan can drag Brazil into deep water
Adrian agrees Brazil deserve favouritism, but believes the gap between the two nations is much smaller than many expect.
“I actually think this could become one of the closest knockout games of the round,” he says. “Japan’s organisation makes them incredibly difficult to break down and that’s exactly the kind of opponent Brazil won’t enjoy facing.”
Rather than expecting Brazil to dominate comfortably, Adrian sees a tense tactical contest where every chance matters.
“Japan’s compact defensive shape and relentless work rate will stop Brazil from playing freely. If they survive the opening stages, confidence will only grow.”
For Brazil, Adrian believes Vinicius Junior and Bruno Guimarães hold the keys.
“Vinicius is obviously Brazil’s biggest attacking threat, but Bruno Guimarães will be just as important because he’ll dictate the tempo and decide whether Brazil can move Japan around quickly enough.”
On Japan’s side, Adrian points to Takefusa Kubo and Daichi Kamada.
“Kubo has the vision to hurt Brazil whenever Japan counter, while Kamada is clever enough to exploit any lapse around the penalty area.”
Unlike Rizal, Adrian believes the longer the match remains level, the more the pressure swings towards Brazil.
“Brazil carry enormous expectations every World Cup. Japan don’t. If this reaches the final 20 minutes at 0-0 or 1-1, suddenly Brazil become the more nervous team.”
Adrian’s verdict: Brazil 1-1 Japan (Brazil win 4-3 on penalties)
“I still think Brazil progress because they have greater quality across the squad, but Japan are capable of pushing them all the way to penalties.”
Final thoughts
Both writers agree on one thing: this will not be a routine night for Brazil.
Rizal believes Brazil’s attacking quality, led by Vinicius Junior, will eventually prove decisive over 90 minutes.
Adrian believes Japan’s defensive discipline and tactical organisation can stretch the contest beyond regulation before Brazil edge through on penalties.
Either way, both expect one of the most entertaining and competitive Round of 32 ties of the tournament.
