Oil prices moved lower on Tuesday as investors kept a close watch on potential US-Iran talks in Doha, with sentiment shaped by ongoing uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire and intermittent missile exchanges over the weekend.
Brent August crude futures, which expire on Tuesday, were down 1.03% or 75 cents at $72.40 a barrel as of 0038 GMT. The more actively traded September contract slipped 0.54% or 40 cents to $73.51 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate also eased, falling 0.66% or 47 cents to $70.32 a barrel.
The moves came as market participants weighed the possibility of diplomatic progress alongside lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
“Investors are pricing in hopes of a positive outcome from the Doha talks, even though real normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz is not yet visible,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“The market is cautiously hopeful but still hedging its bets until we see more tangible signs of de-escalation,” Waterer added.
Attention has turned to whether talks will materialise at all. U.S. President Donald Trump said uncertainty remained over the meeting.
“The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not. We’re going to find out,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
Iranian and Omani officials are expected to begin discussions in the coming days on transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who also said Iran would seek to restrict vessel movement outside designated paths.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said there would be no negotiation meetings at any level with the US side in the coming days.
The lack of clarity has highlighted the fragility of a June 17 agreement aimed at pausing fighting, which has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and added to political pressure in Washington ahead of November congressional elections.
Israel has stayed out of the negotiations and has distanced itself from the agreement.
Despite the tensions, shipping data showed Middle East producers continue to load oil and liquefied natural gas, even as isolated attacks and renewed strikes persist in the region.
In a note dated June 29, analysts at Goldman Sachs said Gulf flows could return to pre-war levels of 23 million barrels per day by early July if recovery trends continue.
They added that traffic last week reached its highest level since the conflict began at the end of February, suggesting gradual stabilisation in shipping activity despite ongoing risks.
