With the Johor state election picking up steam, BusinessToday reached out to a few political analysts for their view of the multi-pronged fight that is about to descend on the second-biggest state in the country, especially the newly formed BERSAMA by former PKR honcho Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and his cohorts.
According to Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani, BERSAMA may not need to win many seats to emerge as one of the biggest winners of the Johor state election, as he believes the fledgling party’s greatest influence may lie elsewhere: Siphoning enough votes from Pakatan Harapan (PH), particularly PKR, to tilt closely fought contests in Barisan Nasional’s (BN) favour.
With BERSAMA contesting 15 seats and Parti Wawasan Rakyat (Wawasan) joining Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) electoral alliance, the analyst said even a modest vote share could reshape Johor’s electoral landscape as the emergence of new political players has injected fresh uncertainty into an election that was initially expected to be a straight fight between BN and PH.
“The most interesting part of this election is not only BN versus PH. It is the arrival of new political players attempting to break the old formula, and that BERSAMA could potentially play the role of kingmaker despite having little prospect of forming the state government itself,” said Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin.
He argued that BERSAMA represents more than another party entering the race; instead, it reflects growing frustration among voters who no longer identify with Malaysia’s three established political coalitions.
He shared that BERSAMA’s appeal lies in offering an “escape route” for voters who reject BN, PH and PN but still want an alternative.
“The potential strength of BERSAMA is not necessarily an immediate victory. Its influence may come from voters who think: ‘I do not want BN. I do not want PH. I do not want PN. But I want another option,” he said.
That group, he noted, includes urban Malays, younger voters, professionals and disillusioned former supporters — segments that could prove decisive in marginal constituencies.
Small Votes Big Impact
In Malaysia’s first-past-the-post electoral system, Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin said a party does not need to secure large numbers of seats to alter the outcome of an election.
“Sometimes a few thousand votes in 10 to 15 marginal seats can reshape the entire map. The irony is that a party that cannot win many seats can still decide who wins,” Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin emphasised.
University Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub echoed that assessment, describing BERSAMA as a potential spoiler capable of influencing closely contested seats even with a modest share of the popular vote.
He said the party could attract protest voters, younger Malaysians and those seeking alternatives outside BN, PH and PN.
“Even a small vote share could influence marginal seats,” he said.
Dr Mohammad Tawfik added that Wawasan’s role is comparatively limited because it is not contesting independently in Johor, serving instead as a symbolic addition to PN’s broader political alignment rather than a direct electoral force.
Geostrategist and Fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Dr Azmi Hassan went further, arguing that BERSAMA’s electoral strategy makes PKR its principal target.
He noted that the party is expected to split PH’s support rather than challenge BN directly.
“As I see it in Johor, it will be BERSAMA versus PKR specifically,” he said.
Dr Azmi believes that dynamic could ultimately benefit BN, predicting that UMNO could retain its dominant position partly because opposition votes become more fragmented.
He added that the Johor election will provide the first meaningful test for parties that are genuine long-term political movements or simply temporary spoilers.
“The question is whether these parties are here merely to spoil the contest or whether they are serious about becoming national political players,” he said.
Beyond seat projections, Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin believes the election marks a broader shift in voter behaviour.
Rather than focusing solely on who wins individual constituencies, he said the emergence of BERSAMA highlights a growing search among some Malaysians for alternatives outside the country’s long-established political blocs.
Whether that translates into any state seats remains uncertain. But if analysts are correct, BERSAMA may not need a breakthrough victory to leave its mark on the Johor election because its biggest victory could instead be determining who loses.
