Airbus expects airlines worldwide to require 42,060 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next two decades, underpinned by rising urbanisation, expanding middle-class populations and sustained economic growth, particularly across the Asia-Pacific region.
In its 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF), the European aircraft manufacturer said global passenger traffic is projected to grow by 3.9% annually, more than doubling to around 10 billion passengers a year by 2045.
The forecast estimates that 19,820 aircraft will be needed to replace ageing fleets, while 22,240 additional aircraft will be required to accommodate market growth.
Single-aisle aircraft are expected to dominate demand, accounting for 81% of future deliveries, with widebody aircraft making up the remaining 19%.
Airbus said the next phase of aviation growth will increasingly be driven by smaller urban centres rather than major metropolitan hubs.
The company expects the number of smaller cities to expand at nearly three times the pace of larger cities, reflecting changing population patterns and growing diaspora communities.
This trend is expected to create demand for more direct routes linking secondary cities, supported by increasingly fuel-efficient aircraft capable of serving lower-density markets economically.
Examples already in operation include routes such as Riga-Tenerife and Melbourne-Alice Springs using the Airbus A220, while longer-range aircraft are enabling direct services such as Lisbon-Recife on the A321neo, Dublin-Nashville on the A321XLR, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur on the A330neo and Taipei-Phoenix on the A350.
Airbus said the centre of gravity for aviation demand continues to shift towards the Asia-Pacific region, mirroring broader economic growth.
Developing economies including India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to drive stronger passenger traffic, supported by rising incomes, urbanisation and increased international migration.
The aircraft manufacturer noted that travel to visit friends and relatives (VFR) will become an increasingly important contributor to passenger growth as global migration trends continue.
By 2045, Airbus expects the global middle-class population most likely to travel by air to increase by 1.4 billion people, representing growth of 34%.
The company said air traffic growth will also be supported by global GDP expansion of 2.6% annually and an additional 1.3 billion people living in urban areas over the forecast period.
Airbus said its product strategy is aligned with long-term market demand, supported by an order backlog of around 9,000 aircraft.
The strong order book underpins planned production increases across its commercial aircraft family, including the targeted production rate of 75 A320 Family aircraft per month.
More than 70% of the current A320 Family backlog comprises the larger A321neo and A321XLR, reflecting airlines’ preference for higher-capacity narrowbody aircraft capable of serving longer and thinner routes.
Meanwhile, the A330neo continues to serve higher-capacity regional and long-haul markets, while the A350 remains popular for ultra-long-haul passenger services as well as air cargo through its dedicated freighter variant.
Airbus expects accelerated fleet replacement to remain a major driver of aircraft demand as airlines retire older, less fuel-efficient aircraft introduced before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The company forecasts that by 2045, almost 100% of the global commercial fleet will consist of the latest generation aircraft, compared with approximately 39% in 2026.
Airbus said newer aircraft will enable airlines to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions while expanding route networks profitably, particularly on underserved city pairs and long-haul destinations.
Despite short-term challenges such as geopolitical conflicts and volatile fuel prices, Airbus believes long-term demand for air travel remains resilient, supported by structural economic and demographic trends.
