The Indonesian rupiah could find some near-term relief from a softer US dollar and easing long-term US Treasury yields, according to OCBC Global Markets Research.
In its latest foreign exchange outlook, OCBC said Bank Indonesia’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% reinforces policy continuity under acting Governor Destry Damayanti, with the central bank maintaining its focus on rupiah stability.
Bank Indonesia also reiterated measures aimed at attracting foreign capital inflows and deepening the country’s foreign exchange markets.
OCBC said the central bank appears increasingly inclined to rely on non-interest-rate measures, including foreign exchange hedging incentives and Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI), rather than raising domestic interest rates materially.
“A sustained USD pullback would ease some external pressure on IDR, although elevated oil prices remain a constraint for Indonesia,” the research house said.
The USD/IDR last closed around 17,830, with bearish momentum on the daily chart remaining intact while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was broadly flat.
OCBC expects two-way trading in the near term, identifying support at 17,760 and 16,630, with the latter levels linked to technical indicators including the 100-day moving average and Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is seen at 17,940.
