Global tin prices are expected to remain elevated as the artificial intelligence investment boom drives stronger semiconductor demand, prompting BMI to raise its 2026 average tin price forecast to US$51,500 per tonne from US$49,000 previously.
The research house said tin has remained on a sustained high plateau since the acceleration in AI-related capital expenditure, given its critical use in soldering and electronics that underpin semiconductor manufacturing.
Three-month tin futures on the London Metal Exchange were hovering around US$54,633 per tonne as of Sept 2, while the year-to-date average stood at US$51,385.
BMI said its technology team expects global AI capital expenditure to reach US$785 billion in 2026, underpinned by strong demand for data centres and rising investment in graphics processing units, central processing units and memory chips.
This is expected to sustain demand for tin from the semiconductor sector through the remainder of the year.
Prices May Moderate Slightly In Fourth Quarter
Despite its more bullish full-year forecast, BMI expects some moderation in tin prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 as supply disruptions begin to ease and the pace of AI capital expenditure growth slows.
However, the research house said prices should remain elevated compared with historical levels as the market continues to grapple with limited supply and structurally stronger demand.
One major uncertainty remains Myanmar’s Wa State, an important source of tin concentrates.
The International Tin Association said in July 2025 that shipments from the region were expected to resume in the following months, but BMI noted there had been no further confirmation as of September 2026.
The research house is therefore taking a wait-and-see approach, noting that expectations of a restart in Wa State tin mining have circulated for months without fully materialising.
Tight Supply Keeps Market Vulnerable To Volatility
BMI said global tin inventories remain relatively low, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp price swings whenever supply disruptions emerge.
Historically depleted London Metal Exchange stocks have already demonstrated how low inventories can push marginal prices sharply higher.
Over the longer term, BMI expects supply constraints to become increasingly important because of the relatively thin pipeline of new tin mining projects.
This is expected to intensify competition among smelters for tin concentrates and constrain the growth of refined output.
At the same time, demand is expected to strengthen from electronics, electric vehicles and solar power, reinforcing tin’s role as a strategic metal in the global energy and technology transition.
Consumption Growth Seen Outpacing Production
BMI’s longer-term projections point to a progressively tighter refined tin market.
Global refined tin production is forecast to rise from 440,220 tonnes in 2026 to 478,340 tonnes by 2030, while consumption is projected to increase at a faster pace from 442,110 tonnes to 544,260 tonnes over the same period.
This would push the market from an estimated 1,890-tonne deficit in 2026 to a deficit of 65,920 tonnes by 2030, based on the research house’s projections.
Consumption growth is also expected to accelerate, reaching 6.33% year-on-year by 2030 compared with production growth of just 1.72%.
BMI said this widening imbalance should keep the tin market fundamentally tight even if prices ease from current elevated levels in subsequent years.
The research house expects tin to remain supported over the coming years as AI-driven semiconductor demand, rising electronics content in electric vehicles and solar panel deployment continue to lift consumption against a constrained supply backdrop.
