The Singapore dollar is expected to remain relatively resilient against the US dollar in the near term, with OCBC seeing limited upside for the USD/SGD pair despite elevated US Treasury yields and stronger expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
OCBC said USD/SGD briefly moved higher following the latest US inflation data as Treasury yields and expectations for tighter Fed policy increased, but the gains were not sustained.
The currency pair subsequently reversed lower into the New York close, reinforcing the bank’s view that the Singapore dollar continues to hold up relatively well even as the external rates environment becomes less favourable.
USD/SGD was last quoted at around 1.2675.
OCBC said the pair could continue to trade in both directions ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, particularly if US Treasury yields remain elevated.
However, the bank expects upside in USD/SGD to remain constrained unless the US dollar stages a more sustained recovery.
From a technical perspective, OCBC said daily momentum indicators are not showing a clear directional bias, while the recent rise in the Relative Strength Index has moderated.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2680, corresponding to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 low-to-high move, followed by 1.2710, where the 21-day moving average lies.
On the downside, support is located at 1.2630, near the recent low, followed by 1.2590, the 2026 low.
OCBC maintained a range-bound outlook for USD/SGD in the near term, with the Singapore dollar’s resilience limiting the scope for a meaningful move higher in the pair unless broader US dollar momentum strengthens.
