Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could cause as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide over the six months to February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The number of extremely hot days is also expected to rise 44% compared with normal years, with developing countries in tropical regions facing some of the greatest risks.
Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of excess heat-related deaths at 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600 between September 2026 and February 2027.
The Sahel region of Africa, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, could see an additional 66,800 deaths over the period.
In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to record a combined 19,400 excess deaths.
The researchers warned that the toll could rise further if El Niño persists into 2027, particularly during the northern hemisphere summer when countries including India and Pakistan could face higher temperatures.
The Climate Impact Lab described the current El Niño as a “postcard from the future”, saying it is producing temperatures that could become normal within the next few decades.
Michael Greenstone, economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab, said the findings could help governments identify areas where emergency measures could reduce heat-related deaths.
“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” he said.
Reuters
