Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, supported by a pullback in oil following a US–Iran interim peace agreement, although gains were tempered as technical indicators pointed to strong resistance near the $4,400 level.
Spot gold rose 1% to $4,297.94 per ounce as of 0745 GMT, recovering part of the previous session’s decline after Federal Reserve signals reinforced expectations of a more hawkish interest rate outlook. US gold futures for August delivery fell 1.5% to $4,317.30.
Oil prices dropped after Washington and Tehran released details of a 14-point interim agreement extending a ceasefire framework, which eased concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in crude also helped ease inflation expectations, a key driver for gold sentiment.
However, RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) said COMEX gold remains technically capped despite recent volatility, noting that the 20-day simple moving average continues to act as overhead resistance.
The research house highlighted that gold climbed to an intraday high of $4,403.60 before facing strong selling pressure that pushed it down to $4,237.40, before settling at $4,381.40 in the previous session.
“The long lower shadow reaffirmed the gap-up level is acting as interim support,” RHB said, adding that the metal may continue a counter-trend rebound as long as the gap remains unfilled.
It added that a move above the short-term moving average would improve sentiment, but maintained that the $4,400 level remains the immediate resistance zone.
“At this juncture, the $4,400 level stays as immediate resistance. We will hold on to the negative trading bias until the commodity closes above $4,400,” it said.
RHB also noted that traders should maintain a short position initiated at $4,605.70, with a stop-loss set at $4,400. On the downside, support is seen at $4,000, followed by $3,700, while resistance levels extend to $4,650.
Broader sentiment in gold continues to be shaped by shifting expectations over US monetary policy, with traders now pricing in an 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch data.
Other precious metals also advanced, with silver up 1% at $68.68 per ounce, platinum gaining 0.2% to $1,739.73 and palladium rising 0.8% to $1,322.25.
