Standard Chartered’s Wealth Solutions Chief Investment Office (CIO) expects global markets to remain supported in the second half of 2026, with investors navigating a more complex environment shaped by shifting energy prices, equity supply, investor positioning and central bank policies.
In its Global Market Outlook for 2H2026, the Bank’s CIO maintained an Overweight view on global equities, favouring the United States and Asia ex-Japan markets, while highlighting selective opportunities in fixed income and alternative investments.
The CIO projected further upside potential across major asset classes, setting a target of 7,950 for the S&P 500 index and US$5,100 for gold by mid-2027.
The Bank said equities are expected to remain a key driver of portfolio growth, while gold continues to serve as a strategic portfolio diversifier amid ongoing uncertainties.
“Markets have shown resilience in the first half of the year, supported by strong earnings and ongoing optimism around technology,” said Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer at Standard Chartered.
“However, the second half of 2026 is likely to require more active navigation, with several shifting factors influencing investor sentiment and market direction,” he added.
Four key factors shaping markets
Global equities have gained more than 12% year-to-date, driven by stronger corporate earnings and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), despite geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices and higher bond yields.
According to Standard Chartered CIO, market momentum could continue into the second half of the year, although investors will need to monitor four key developments.
The first is energy prices, where a temporary US-Iran peace deal could ease supply constraints and put downward pressure on oil prices. However, risks remain due to uncertainty over the durability of the agreement and the pace of production recovery.
The second factor is equity supply, with a strong US initial public offering (IPO) pipeline potentially creating short-term oversupply concerns. Nevertheless, recent successful listings suggest investor demand remains resilient.
The third consideration is investor positioning, as elevated optimism could increase the risk of short-term market corrections. The CIO said such pullbacks may provide opportunities for investors to increase exposure.
The fourth factor is central bank policy, where easing energy prices may reduce inflation pressures and the need for tighter monetary policy. However, resilient labour markets could limit the pace of interest rate cuts, particularly in the United States
Soft landing remains base case
Standard Chartered CIO continues to expect a global soft-landing scenario, supported by steady economic growth and moderating inflation pressures.
While recession and stagflation risks remain, the Bank said softer energy prices have reduced the likelihood of these outcomes.
The CIO also highlighted that current bond yields provide attractive opportunities for investors seeking income, with a preference for emerging market (EM) US dollar-denominated bonds.
Gold remains the Bank’s preferred diversification asset, alongside core allocations to alternative strategies.
Brice said investors should remain focused on maintaining diversification and staying invested despite periods of volatility.
“In this environment, staying invested, maintaining diversification, and being prepared to take advantage of periods of volatility will be key to capturing opportunities,” he said.
