Oil prices rose on Monday after renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran reignited concerns over supply security in the Middle East and disrupted shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures climbed 58 cents, or 0.8%, to US$72.57 a barrel in early trade, while West Texas Intermediate rose 88 cents, or 1.3%, to US$70.11 a barrel.
The latest gains followed several days of tit-for-tat attacks that underscored the fragility of a temporary truce between the two sides and triggered renewed caution across global energy markets.
Despite the rebound, analysts noted that sentiment remains divided. ING analysts said market participants were still weighing the likelihood of a recovery in oil flows against the risk of prolonged disruption.
“There’s still plenty of risk facing the oil market. Even so, participants appear to be focusing on what a continued recovery in oil flows would mean for the global balance,” ING said in a note. “This complacency is odd and clearly leaves significant upside risk if the supply recovery proves slow.”
Oil had fallen 10.6% last week, marking a third consecutive weekly decline, as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz briefly recovered to their highest level since earlier conflict disruptions.
However, shipping activity has since slowed again following renewed attacks on vessels in the region, including a Qatar-linked tanker, which prompted further strikes and renewed volatility.
ANZ analysts said the market may now be reassessing expectations of a quick normalisation in Gulf supply flows.
“The market is likely to re-evaluate its assumption of a quick recovery of oil supply from the Persian Gulf,” ANZ said.
Adding further complexity, Iran and the United States reportedly agreed to halt recent hostilities and resume talks over disputes linked to the strategic shipping route, according to US officials.
Saudi Aramco also resumed crude loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal after a months-long suspension, even as operational risks remain elevated following a separate helicopter crash at the facility.
Analysts warned that physical flows remain constrained by tanker backlogs, infrastructure damage and production disruptions, suggesting a full return to pre-conflict supply conditions could take time.
