Barisan Nasional’s (BN) landslide victory in the Johor state election has reinforced the coalition’s dominance in the state while exposing growing cracks in Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) support base, particularly among Chinese voters, according to political analysts.
Geostrategist and political analyst Professor Dr Azmi Hassan said BN’s victory itself was expected, but winning 48 of the 56 seats contested — eight more than in the 2022 state election — exceeded expectations.
“I expected BN to win more than 40 seats, but to gain 48 seats was quite a surprise,” he said.
Azmi said one of the election’s most striking outcomes was DAP’s defeat in Chinese-majority strongholds such as Tangkak and Bekok.
“Losing Tangkak and Bekok, which are considered DAP strongholds, shows something is not right with the party,” he said.
He said the trend, which mirrors developments seen in Sabah, suggests growing dissatisfaction among Chinese voters towards DAP.
According to Azmi, MCA emerged as the biggest beneficiary, aided by Umno’s formidable machinery in Johor.
“MCA managed to capture Tangkak and retain Pekan Nanas with a bigger majority. It indicates there was a significant transfer of votes from DAP supporters to MCA,” he said.
Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri echoed the view, describing MCA’s resurgence as the biggest story of the election.
“I think this shows that DAP cannot rely on its voter base anymore, or if it is still there. Chinese voters may slowly be shifting, although this needs time to be confirmed,” she said.
Syaza added that the outcome also reflected declining support for PH, which remains heavily dependent on DAP.
She said this was a normal political cycle for governing coalitions as voters begin judging their performance in office.
“When in government, people will start to see the shortcomings of PH and, to be honest, this is normal in a democracy,” she said.
Both analysts agreed the Johor result reaffirmed BN’s status as the state’s dominant political force.
Syaza described BN’s defeat in Johor during the 2018 general election as an anomaly rather than a lasting trend.
“Johor confirms itself as BN’s stronghold and that 2018 was just a deviation,” she said.
Azmi, however, cautioned that it remains too early to conclude whether PAS voters also shifted towards BN, saying more detailed voting data is needed.
He noted that although PAS lost the Meranti seat, its decision to support BN could strengthen its bargaining position ahead of the Negeri Sembilan state election, where cooperation between the two parties may again come under consideration.
Syaza similarly warned against assuming Johor’s outcome would be replicated nationally.
“But nationally, it might not be that smooth for BN. One of the biggest factors here is PAS throwing support behind BN. Will it happen again?” she said.
Azmi also pointed to the poor showing by Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama), whose candidates all lost their deposits, saying the result showed the party had yet to establish itself as a credible political force capable of influencing election outcomes.
